Six Scenarios For Putin To End The War

Not a single option is good for the head of the Kremlin.

All military strategists from Sun Tzu to Clausewitz wrote that the goal of war should be a better peace than the pre-war one.

I am completely sure about the post-war future of Ukraine. The country will be admitted to both the EU and NATO. A new Marshall Program will be developed for Ukraine, which will allow it to develop very quickly. The whole of Europe will be interested in the well-being of Ukraine. Even a large military external debt can benefit it — the money will be allocated by the West for specific programs. It will also control the expenditure of these funds. To minimize corruption in Ukraine.

But for Putin's Russia, there is NOT ASINGLE favorable scenario for the end of the war.

If someone told Putin that the war would last more than two years and during this time Russia would lose its entire professional army, lose thousands of tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery systems, lose hundreds of aircraft, helicopters and air defence systems, that its Black Sea Fleet would be partially destroyed, and its remnants would be afraid to go to sea, lose the European energy market, lose hundreds of billions of dollars, lose almost the entire residency in the West, lose more than a million of those who left... and at the same time would not be able to take even Kharkiv, located 30 km from the border with Russia, this war would never begin. Because this is a complete catastrophe for Russia — having a tenfold advantage in almost all areas, it is impossible to achieve almost anything.

Let's try to consider several scenarios for the end of the war. And the consequences for Russia

Scenario 1. All of Putin's dreams have come true. Probability: 1-2%.

The war ends because Ukraine capitulates. Yanukovych becomes president. Ukraine is not accepted into either NATO or the EU. It's disbanding its army. Russia retains all the occupied lands.

What's next?

Hundreds of thousands of people are returning from the front with weapons and damaged brains. They beat their wives and children. They are getting drunk and shooting. Disabled people quickly realize that no one needs them. The military industry has been engaged to the maximum and it must be stopped somehow. Both front-line soldiers and workers accustomed to large amounts of money by Russian standards are returning to the minimum wage. Hundreds of new and well-armed gangs are emerging.

No one understands what to do with these people and there is a very high chance that Russia will decide to use them again. The danger of an invasion of Northern Kazakhstan is very high. Let's take back the native Russian lands. In response, China blocks everything for Russia. And then you can drain the water.

In addition, it is necessary to invest trillions in "new" captured and destroyed territories. It is necessary to pay pensions to the former soldiers and the disabled persons. The inflation flywheel is spinning. No one will lift sanctions against Russia — the aggressor cannot be encouraged and the country continues to rot and degrade. Accidents are becoming the norm, not the exception. Russian science no longer exists. All ties with the West have been severed. No one will give loans for the development of the country.

The result: stagnation and extinction of the country.

Scenario 2. Iranian-Iraqi push-me-pull-you. Probability 10-15%

No country has the strength to make a decisive breakthrough. The war continues for several more years, but the front practically does not move. The intensity of hostilities is gradually decreasing — everyone is fatigued.

This option is also exceptionally bad for Russia. Ukraine continues its "Thousand Cuts" tactics. Attacks on refineries and attacks on thermal power plants. Half of the population of the European part of Russia is trying to get used to the need to live without power and heat. Western sanctions act like radiation — serious food and fuel shortages cover the country. Desertion becomes massive — whole parts are fleeing from the front. Everyone who can leave Russia will leave. Separatism is gaining strength — the Kaliningrad region, Chechnya and Dagestan announce their secession from Russia. There are no more forces to suppress the separatists. Tatarstan and the Far East are looking at how the confrontation between the regions and the center will end and are also preparing referendums on independence.

The result: stagnation and the collapse of the country.

Scenario 3. The strategic initiative is gradually moving to Ukraine. Probability 50-55%

Ukraine receives not only a lot of the F-16 and ATACMS but also a large number of cruise missiles. And the methodical beating of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation begins. Gradually, all air defences are destroyed, then the remnants of Russian aviation are forced to retreat to distant airfields. Dominance in the air passes to Ukraine. The Russian troops are sitting under the attacks of heavy KABs and begin to retreat, as they retreated from Kherson, so as not to be killed. The Crimean Bridge is demolished, and the land corridor to the Crimea is cut. The remnants of the Black Sea Fleet are trying to escape into the Caspian Sea or hide somewhere in Abkhazia. Some sources report that Blinken's visit to China was very productive and Xi is winding down the aid for Pu [Putin - Ed.]. You can drain the water — there will be nothing for further hostilities.

The result: Russia's military defeat and surrender.

Scenario 4. A military coup. Probability 5-10%

The army or the FSB understand that the putsch gives Russia a chance for salvation. A living Putin is now a burden. It is easier to get rid of the usurper and blame him for everything. We did not want to, we were forced, our children were held hostage, let's put up. Everything you want for the lifting of sanctions. Just no courts and investigations. The entire Security Council and several odious propagandists are extradited to The Hague. Russian security forces are trying to stay in power. Long and painful negotiations on reparations and nuclear disarmament of the Russian Federation begin.

Bottom line: unpredictable — too many unknowns.

Scenario 5. Putin himself chooses a successor. Probability 3-5%

The media reports that Putin has cancer. He would be happy to lead the country forward, but he cannot — he is seriously ill. Professor Solovei ("Nightingale") appears who shakes off the dust and declares that he has been saying this for a long time. Some Demin is declared a peacemaker. Under this case, an attempt should be made to start negotiations and delay the time.

Bottom line: unpredictable — too many unknowns.

Scenario 6. Slamming the door loudly. Probability 10-15%

The Kremlin is painfully looking for ways to end the war at any cost. I am increasingly inclined to think that the Malaysian Boeing was shot down not by chance in 2014. Russian insurgents lost the war in Donbas and the "Chinese draw" option was chosen. The Kremlin decided that a very high-profile crime was needed to urgently declare the need to end the war at any cost. They wanted to blame the "militias" but nothing came of it. However, the Kremlin achieved its goal — the war was frozen.

This option can be tried again by staging some monstrous provocation — the destruction of dams on the Dnipro River, the attack on a nuclear power plant, the explosion of a nuclear bomb. So that the whole world is horrified — we don't care whose Crimea and Donbas are there, this war needs to end urgently, the entire world civilization is under threat.

Bottom line: unpredictable — too many unknowns.

Conclusion: either Russia will cease to be Putin's or it will cease to be Russia.

Dmitry Chernyshev, Facebook