The US Uses Ukrainian Experience To Protect Taiwan

To contain China, the Pentagon has developed a Hellscape strategy.

The war in Ukraine is important, including for the situation around Taiwan, which, according to the instructions of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the People's Liberation Army of China should be ready by 2027. What is happening on the Ukrainian battlefields is closely watched by the leading military powers, assessing both the failures and successes of the parties, both strategic initiatives and technological methods of warfare.

If Xi decides to invade, he will not want to repeat the mistake of Vladimir Putin, who intended to take Kyiv in three days, and eventually got bogged down in a war that has lasted for the third year. Therefore, China seems intent on crushing Taiwan in a surprise and massive attack, according to Admiral Samuel Paparo, who recently took command of the US Indo-Pacific Command. “They want to show the world a short, fast-paced war to put it in front of a fait accompli before it wakes up,” Paparo told The Washington Post. Therefore, the United States and its allies must make Xi understand that an easy victory does not shine on him, and he did not even try to organize an attack, the admiral explained.

To contain China, the US has developed a Hellscape strategy: as soon as the Chinese ships move towards Taiwan, the US will release thousands of air and sea (both underwater and surface) drones to contain the Chinese armada and allow Taiwan, the US and allied forces to prepare sufficient response. Paparo told The Washington Post:

"I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities so that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything".

The admiral did not tell what specific technical capabilities he has, but said that "they are real and can be deployed."

In March, the Pentagon announced that it would spend $1 billion on the Replicator Initiative to produce a large number of naval and aerial drones just for the Hellscape strategy. According to Paparo, the Replicator shows that the United States is learning lessons from the war in Ukraine, where Ukrainian innovations in the field of drones brought the conflict to a new technological level.

In particular, Ukraine is conducting an effective campaign against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, using both missiles and naval drones developed by it. Drones have repeatedly attacked Russian warships in groups, including those hiding in bays, causing them significant damage and sinking them. As a result, Russia lost about a third of the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, and Ukraine has restored unhindered sea exports of agricultural products since last autumn.

According to the Oryx website, which records documented losses, Russia lost 26 ships and submarines, of which 19 were destroyed and seven were damaged.

True, a full-fledged invasion is not the only possibility of China. It may try to bring Taiwan to its knees if it does not conquer it. A full-scale war could lead to a 10.2% drop in global GDP in the first year of the conflict, with Taiwan's GDP falling by 40%, mainland China's by 16.7%, and the US's by 6.7%, Bloomberg Economics calculated in early 2024. In the event of a blockade of the island, GDP will fall by 5%, 12.2%, 8.9% and 3.3%, respectively.