20 July 2024, Saturday, 18:02
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'Putin And Lukashenka Raise The Stakes'

'Putin And Lukashenka Raise The Stakes'

Should we expect an escalation on the Polish-Belarusian border?

Today, on June 12, soldier Mateusz Sitko, killed by an illegal migrant on the border with Belarus, was buried in Poland today. Migrant attacks continue, setting new records.

Why are we now seeing an escalation of the crisis? Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies:

— This is natural, since this is a manifestation and activation of the hybrid war against the European Union by the Russian Federation. It's just that hybrid warfare takes different forms. Here in the Czech Republic, as the Prime Minister of the country has already stated, for the money of Russians, local "unconscious" people set fire to buses.

A shopping mall also recently burned in Warsaw. Maybe it was an accident. Perhaps a manifestation of hybrid warfare. After all, arson is a technique that is now used by the Russian Federation in many European countries. In particular, for example, there was a series of such incidents in London.

On the Polish-Belarusian border, the methodology of the migrant war is again used. By the way, Finland has now also strengthened control over the border, fearing assaults on the border or its illegal crossings.

I will emphasize, in my opinion, without a doubt, this is a manifestation of a hybrid war on the part of Russia. Lukashenka is unlikely to go to direct war. He understands the risk. And the Russians are not yet ready to open a second front. They use the hybrid technique.

— Should we expect an escalation on the part of Lukashenka and Putin? Will there be migrants with guns, something else like that?

— Unfortunately, there may be such provocations. The incident that led to the death of a Polish soldier may be a spontaneous manifestation of aggression, but it can also be a deliberate forcing, raising the stakes, provoking conflict situations, including in such a form that can lead to death. This is Russian style. Their death does not stop, for them it is a completely natural method. This is how they remove their opponents. By the way, in this way the Kremlin also provokes internal conflicts in the countries.

Here they pursue another goal: provoking internal social and political tensions, fomenting panic in some European countries. Thus, they want to provoke the West into peace on their own terms.

— Will the Kremlin be able to implement this plan?

— It is unlikely, but European countries need to prepare, let's say, to look for the best method. It is obvious that the countries that directly border the Russian Federation and Belarus now need to strengthen border control.

Physical control over the border will help here, and it is necessary to think over the methodology, firstly, of not admitting these migrants to their territory, as well as of extraditing them. To make it clear to them that they will not get into the EU. It is important to warn informationally at the border that in case of violations you will be extradited.

EU states should work to strengthen control over strategic infrastructure facilities. The Russians are recruiting people by all means. For example, sabotage attempts in Poland were recently reported.

They must intensify their work and special services to identify those who are recruited for sabotage or provocation in the EU.

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