Yuriy Kmits: Putin and Lukashenka Agree On Political Asylum

Soon the Belarusian people will have their say.

It is sparkling on the borders of Belarus and Poland — illegal immigrants are setting records for assaults, and recently a Polish soldier was killed. At the same time, joint nuclear exercises of Belarus and Russia are taking place.

What is the reason for this escalation? Charter97.org talked to the head of the Ukrainian public organisation Zakhidni Informatsiyniy Front ("Western Information Front"), co-founder of the Belarusian Information Centre in Lviv, Yuriy Kmits.

“Putin has no choice but to make Lukashenka's move”

— It's very simple, this is a response to the latest decisions of Biden on the zone of destruction of American weapons on the territory of Russia. The chess game between the American president and the Russian dictator continues, some new "red lines" are drawn. Biden must show the result before the election, he must show that he is the winner in the war with Putin. “Putin has no choice but to make Lukashenka's move”

Lukashenka plays the role of such a "monkey boy" with a criminal authority in the form of Russia. For China, the role of the "monkey boy" is played by North Korea, for Iran it is Hezbollah and Hamas, and Russia uses the Belarusian regime for this purpose. When it does not want to act under its own flag, it makes a move by Belarus and begins to do some unpleasant things to its opponent, in this case, to America and the West.

Biden needs to show the result — either a peace treaty on Ukraine, or a victory in the form of some blows, or the return of the occupied territories to Kyiv. But there is no particularly visible result yet, and Biden raises the stakes, he gives more weapons, more vehicles.

"Lukashenka does not want to fight with Ukraine until he finishes his war with the West"

What can Russia offer if Lukashenka is not taken into account? Another increase in the number of movements towards the use of nuclear weapons? No one will use nuclear weapons, it's clear, it's just blackmail. But Lukashenka said that he does not want to fight with Ukraine until he ends his war with the West, primarily with Lithuania and Poland.

Putin uses this to say, “Ah, you want to fight the West? Ok, please, go ahead. Make Poland nervous, make provocations against Lithuania. Work for the "union state", work off money that Russia gives you." Just like that. It's just that Lukashenka is working off the Russian funding.

"Russia is a ship that sinks"

— Is there an opportunity for Lukashenka and Putin to raise the stakes even more?

— The level of provocations will not have any further development, only their number can change. No matter how much Lukashenka plays the idiot, he understands that Russia is a ship that is sinking. The latest economic data and speeches at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum indicate that Russia faces a very serious economic crisis.

I would also note one more important phenomenon: in Russia, for the first time, they openly talked about the deterioration of economic indicators, the problem of inflation and other problems with the economy due to the war. If you look at the speeches at the economic forum, they will be sad and quite truthful.

What does it mean? Will we believe that in Russia, such a closed dictatorial state, transparency has appeared, democracy has triumphed and officials have begun to tell the truth to their people? No, it's not true. This will not happen so easily, because there is an information dictatorship in Russia. Putin has chosen a new trend in his domestic policy — they begin to talk about problems in the economy in order to prepare the population for the expropriation of their money.

"This is good for Ukraine and real Belarus"

— The next step after the information about the bad economic situation will be increased financial pressure on businesses and ordinary citizens to share the funds to finance the war. And these novelties, know-how, which went informationally after the forum in St. Petersburg, mean only one thing — Russia begins to take away the money of ordinary citizens, because the oligarchs will not give their money, they are friends with the authorities. Therefore, small and medium-sized businesses and ordinary citizens will have to pay.

This is good for us – for Ukraine and real Belarus – because finally, in the third year of the war, ordinary Russians who remained neutral will feel that there is a war. Previously, Putin adhered to the tactic that the war in Ukraine did not affect the majority of the population, it's at a distance, a kind of colonial war — there are no losses, everything is super with finances, GDP is growing.

But it turned out that it is impossible to keep this picture for a long time, because the money is running out, GDP growth due to military production does not add additional value to the economy. And why does it not add? Because everything they produce is destroyed in the war, it does not spin in business, does not add any percentages. All finances go to what is destroyed overnight. This is a vicious circle that reduces the opportunities of the economy.

“Negotiations will be vital for Russia”

— There is a new situation here — Putin is changing his domestic economic policy, he will now squeeze money out of medium-sized businesses and ordinary citizens. And the market felt it, a very sharp growth of the dollar and the euro began. And the latest know-how that the Americans do not allow currency trading on the Moscow Exchange is one of the steps aimed at strangling the Russian economy.

2024 is the only year in Russia when it can still demonstrate some capabilities at the front using its reserves. At the end of this year, Russia's capabilities will be sharply reduced. This will lead to the strong Kremlin's desire to negotiate. We are on the way to Biden getting his way, Ukraine getting its way. Perhaps by the end of 2025, we will come to a situation where negotiations for Russia will be vital, when we will talk about such negotiations that take into account Ukrainian interests, and not the interests of the aggressor.

"The confrontation with Russia is painted by days and minutes"

— What real steps can the West take to bring this moment closer?

— If you look closely, it seems that the Americans control the military confrontation between the West and Russia on the territory of Ukraine (this is how some experts assess Russian aggression), it is scheduled by days and minutes. There is a slow strangulation of Russia by boa constriction tactics, so that it slowly suffocates and is gradually destroyed, but could not bring any harm to NATO or neighboring countries through the uncontrolled use of nuclear weapons. To strangle, but not to fight it.

Unfortunately, this happens at the expense of Ukraine, at the expense of Ukrainian heroes, at the expense of the Ukrainian army. But this is the tactic that allows you to control the situation. The West is at war with Russia, with Russian aggression in Ukraine, controlling the escalation of Russia. Putin is very angry, he is dissatisfied, he is used to being the one controlling the escalation. And here, for the first time in the last 20 years, he lost this control. Now Macron, Biden, Scholz have it, they control the process of greater escalation of the war.

"Biden made an incredible statement in general"

— What does the West have to offer? It continues to work, we here talk about further steps. Macron gives additional Mirage aircraft. Is this a step? A step. The UK and other countries allow their weapons to be used against legitimate targets throughout Russia.

And Biden made an incredible statement: "I forbid hitting the Kremlin." But this is only about the Kremlin, in other places — yes. And then, here we can add that so far it prohibits, because he cancels all the things that he voiced earlier. At first, we were not given Abrams tanks, we were not given HIMARS MLRS. Now what? We've gotten the Abrams, gave and the HIMARS, recently we got long-range missiles. What does this mean? Will we get the Tomahawks? I think that it will follow.

"Putin is already negotiating political asylum"

— The table of growth rates in America and NATO is still very large, in contrast to the capabilities of Russia. Only nuclear weapons, but even in this case they have already used this blackmail. Why is Putin going to North Korea now? Because of all the allies that can give him weapons, Pyongyang does it openly and without restrictions. And secondly, Putin can not rely on China or Iran to hide him and his daughters in the event of a loss in the war, uprising, revolution or some putsch in Russia. Only a nuclear-armed North Korea can actually give political asylum to a Russian dictator. "Putin is already negotiating political asylum"

— I understand that Lukashenka negotiated with Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, he is packing his finances somewhere there. He will not trust any of Russia's allies. He does not negotiate with Iran on political asylum, does not negotiate with China, because he understands that their own interests are more important for them, they can extradite Lukashenka easily. Therefore, he negotiates with the Arab countries on financial terms.

"Only the Belarusian people are the bearers of the sovereignty and idea of independence of Belarus"

— It is noteworthy that President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has already stated several times about the European future of Belarus. At a conference in Germany, Zelensky said that the time would come for a free and European Belarus. What signal does the Ukrainian president send?

— Zelensky sends a signal to the Belarusian people in Belarus. Unfortunately, Ukraine's cooperation with part of the Belarusian democratic opposition is rather fruitless and negative than positive.

It is very sad, but part of the so-called Belarusian opposition is engaged in empty price-filling, activity for the sake of activity. They do not think about protecting Belarus or liberating the country from the aggressor, they are simply engaged in the arrangement of their lives.

"Soon there will come a time when Belarusians will have to say their word"

— Unfortunately, there are such people in Ukraine, in the West, in the EU countries and around Belarus. Zelensky understands that only the Belarusian people are the bearers of the sovereignty and idea of independence of Belarus, that for the most part they do not support the war, and do not want to be under Russia. We know this, so Zelensky sends a signal to the Belarusian people, who read, see and understand what is happening: “It is time for opportunities. Get ready, there will come a time when you have to say your word.”

Given the whole situation with the dictatorship, regime, repression, political prisoners, I understand how difficult it is to express the opinion now. But there will come a time when Russia will be in crisis and Lukashenka's dictatorship will be in fear. The security forces will no longer be able to support Lukashenka, who holds power against the will of his people. And then there will be no need for any Belarusian military formations from the territory of Ukraine, there will be no need for Ukrainian military intervention. The Belarusian people themselves will say their word, take to the streets and do the necessary political things — a strike and so on. And the security forces will not be able to resist this, this is a normal revolutionary process. Zelensky draws the attention of Belarusians that soon this time will come.

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