‘No Accident’: Why Russian Shaheds Fly Over Belarus This Often

The “flying visits” are happening with increasing frequency.

A Russian Shahed has flown into Belarus for the fourth time. This time, combat aircraft were raised over Mahiliou. Why are kamikaze drones increasingly flying over our country?

The Charter97.org website spoke about this with military expert, co-director of foreign policy and international security programs at the Razumkov Center in Kyiv, Oleksiy Melnyk:

— The first thing to pay attention to is that this is no longer an accident, but a certain pattern. The incidents are happening with increasing frequency.

If the Russian Federation, together with Belarus, does not analyze the situation now, does not find the cause and does not take measures, then we can assume that these incidents will become more frequent.

If we talk about the reasons, the most likely one is failures in the satellite navigation system. It is possible that the Russian or Belarusian military are intensively using a GPS jamming system in this area, which could have caused the receiver of this Shahed to receive false coordinates and, accordingly, it to turn towards Belarus.

There could be a number of reasons. If there is not one system, but duplicates, then let's imagine that the GPS is jammed, but navigation continues using the inertial system. Figuratively speaking, there is a computer that determines the location by speed and course, heading towards the target. The disadvantage of this system is that the greater the distance the device flies, the greater the accumulated error. These are the most likely reasons.

It is also possible to assume (I cannot confirm this in any way) that this could be the result of electronic warfare on the Ukrainian side. I do not know how to do this technically, but ideally the same Shahed could be sent to the place from which it flew.

— Is there a danger that such a UAV could fall on a Belarusian city?

— If it cannot fly to the place where it was sent, then everything else depends on chance. When it runs out of fuel, and if it is shot down, then where will it fall?

It would not be superfluous to recall that, for example, at least several dozen gliding air bombs fell on the territory of the Belgorod region. There was a case with the collapse of the entrance of a residential building, where (according to objective information received from independent experts) it was a Russian bomb that fell from the east.

If the government of Belarus allows its airspace to be used for waging war, then, probably, it is necessary to soberly assess the risks associated with this.

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