Political Scientist On Shaheds Flying Over Belarus: This Is A Message To Lukashenka

Russia has resorted to provocation.

On the night of Tuesday, July 16, one of the Russian drones of the “Shahed” type, launched over the territory of Ukraine, flew into the airspace of Belarus. It probably exploded near the city of Babruisk.

Political observer Alexander Friedman shared his opinion on what is happening in a commentary to “Filin”:

— Let's proceed from the fact that these are Russian actions. In this way, the Russians are playing on the nerves of both Ukrainians and Belarusians.

Because they know that neither Kyiv nor, naturally, Minsk are interested in spreading the war to Belarus. And the West, of course, is not interested in this. Only Moscow is interested in this.

The fourth flight into the territory of Belarus no longer looks like an accident. Once, twice — still okay. The fourth is already a system. And with the help of such provocations, Russia is trying to achieve several goals.

Firstly, I repeat, to play on the nerves of Ukrainians and Belarusians. Secondly, to show Lukashenka who is the boss. This may be a reaction to his latest statements that he has agreed on something with someone here, that they are afraid of him in Ukraine and that he does not need a war. In this way, they show him who is the boss here. Like, sit quietly, don’t speak out, otherwise we will do everything we need.

In addition, with such actions they are testing the Ukrainian reaction. How it can react to something like this. On the one hand, this is educational work regarding Lukashenka, and an opportunity to see what can come of this.

This is quite typical for Russia. Let's remember the story with Lithuania, when Moscow announced its decision to revise the maritime borders. Or the story with the border buoys in Estonia.

So we will organize such a small provocation and see what happens then. From Russia's point of view, all of this is controlled games.

And for Moscow, this is a winning situation. Let's assume that someone in Ukraine loses their nerve and responds to these actions. For example, they really start using Belarusian airspace for raids on Russian territory.

For the Kremlin, such a decision will only be a plus, since it will allow it to tie Belarus even more tightly to itself. Like, look, the Ukrainians are using your air corridors — that means you need to be protected from this.

The Russian side knows that the West clearly does not want the war to spread to Belarusian territory. In this situation, Moscow can achieve several goals. It will be possible to show Lukashenka his place in this way — profound, good preventive work.

And if this provocation turns into something bigger, a more serious conflict, then all this will also be in Russia's interests.

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