Political Scientist On Krieger Case: It’s Big Bargain, Where Lukashenka Is Just Intermediary

The regime has gained nothing from it.

Lukashenka has decided to pardon German citizen Rico Krieger, who was sentenced to death. It is not yet known whether the death penalty was replaced with life imprisonment or another term of imprisonment, or whether the convicted person was released. It was assumed that Krieger could be exchanged for FSB agent Vadim Krasikov, who is in a German prison.

At the same time, we have not yet seen any steps from Germany. What could be behind this story? Charter97.org talked about this with Belarusian political scientist Anatol Kotau:

— We will find out what is really behind this story in the next few days. There is a high probability that this is not a Belarusian story, and accordingly, Germany will not take any steps towards Lukashenka.

The agreements on Krieger were most likely concluded between Berlin and Moscow, and Minsk is only an intermediary and executor. Lukashenka may have wanted to win something for himself, but it didn’t work out that well, because the people who ordered it are elsewhere.

— The topic of a possible exchange of Krieger for FSB agent Krasikov, who is in a German prison, was actively discussed. In recent days, Russia has also started talking about an exchange — political prisoners have begun to be transferred from prisons. Are these events connected: Krieger’s pardon, the situation with Russian prisoners of conscience? Or are these parallel stories?

— We can say that one Krieger for this FSB agent Krasikov will definitely not be enough. Although this sounds quite cynical, these are not quite equivalent objects for exchange. It is quite possible that we are talking about a more serious deal, in which there is a place for Russian political prisoners.

If so, we will know the details by the end of the week. Moreover, some planes have started flying there, disappearing from transponders, they may be involved in exchange operations. If so, which is very likely, then the agreements between Berlin and Moscow are quite large-scale. And Krieger is just an element in a big deal, which has brought nothing good to the Belarusian regime, having only completely killed the remnants of any image.

— Can Belarusian political prisoners somehow get into this deal?

— It is very difficult to predict anything here, but I would say more likely no than yes. Precisely in this scheme. Most likely, unfortunately, we are not talking about Belarusian citizens here, but about prisoners who are exchanged in this format.

Again, everything will become clear in the next few days, when the true background of this “act of mercy” is understood.

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