Podolyak: Lukashenka Was Wrong

The year 2020 will be played out.

Adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office Mykhailo Podolyak commented on the fears of the Belarusian dictator.

“The threat to Belarus's independence, which the regime is now talking about, threatening with nuclear weapons, does exist,” Mykhailo Podolyak said in an interview with the famous journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov. “But only from the Russian Federation, which totally dominates, both within the framework of the concept of the Union State, and in resolving all other issues, for example, personnel.

I understand Lukashenka's fear. He increasingly feels the loss of any, even internal, subjectivity. In fact, even the military may not obey him in the event of an internal crisis.

Lukashenka's fear is dictated by the fact that after thirty years in power, he cannot have guarantees from the next elites that he, his family, or his interests will not suffer.

His political statements recently emphasize that he is experiencing quite pronounced fear. He understands that Russia is gradually entering a state where it can get rid of him.”

The representative of Zelensky's office believes that, wanting to distance himself from Russia, the Belarusian ruler is desperately looking for other partners who could help him in the current circumstances.

“Lukashenka is now looking for someone who, in certain political processes in Belarus, could give him guarantees, who would say: yes, Belarus is interesting to us.

But here he is mistaken. He made many strategic mistakes. One of them is that China found another door for itself in Europe. We saw a fairly effective visit by Xi Jinping to Belgrade.

Accordingly, Belarus in this regard does not look as promising for the PRC as it did before the start of a full-scale invasion, when China invested a lot of money in various sectors of Belarus.

Lukashenka was wrong, he did not foresee that the war could develop in a different way from the Russian scenario. It seemed to him that this would be a Crimean scenario, a lightning war, Russia would control Ukraine, and Belarus would receive its dividends due to the bridgehead assistance.

Will some countries negotiate with Lukashenka to support him? They may, but they will not support him.

And then, the worse Russia's position on the battlefield becomes, the worse Lukashenka will feel, and the more radical Putin's attitude towards him will be.

Times will get worse and worse for him,” Podolyak believes.

Speaking about the fears of the Belarusian ruler, the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine returns to the events of 2020.

“I do not rule out that any military defeat of Russia, even a tactical one (for example, a breakthrough of the front line in one direction or another or something similar), will lead to revolutionary processes in the states where, in one way or another, there is a presence of Russian interest.

One of the countries where this will happen is Belarus. Lukashenka intuitively feels this. He understands that then the summer-autumn of 2020 will be played out.

Especially since after that election campaign, tens of thousands of people are still in prisons in Belarus, some even died. Of course, people will demand satisfaction.

Let me remind you that the events of 2020 were shaped not by the classical opposition, but by civil society. This was completely unexpected, shocking for Lukashenka.

And this civil society, I think, is now much tougher,” Podolyak believes.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail charter97@gmail.com