The NYT: Russia Has No Chance Of Success In Ukraine

The dynamics of the war have changed.

Russia has no chance of significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months. Its poorly trained forces are trying to break through the Ukrainian defence, reinforced by Western weapons.

This was reported by The New York Times citing US officials. During the spring and early summer, Russian troops tried to occupy territory outside Kharkiv and resume an offensive in eastern Ukraine to benefit from the capture of Avdiivka. Russia suffered thousands of losses, gaining few new territories.

Russia's problems demonstrate a significant change in the war's dynamics, which has favoured Moscow in recent months. Russian troops continue to attack, but the Ukrainians' solid positions are slowing their gradual progress.

The coming months will not be easy for Ukraine, the newspaper writes. But Allied leaders gathering in Washington this week for the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization can legitimately claim that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.

“Ukrainian forces are stretched thin and face difficult months of fighting ahead, but a major Russian breakthrough is unlikely right now,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who recently visited Ukraine.

Leaders at the summit are expected to pledge new funding for Ukraine, announce NATO's plans to coordinate arms shipments and reinforce the promise to Kyiv that it will eventually become a full-fledged ally.

It was the last point that became the center of the war, more important even the return of the territory While Ukrainian officials insist they are fighting to reclaim their land, more American officials believe the war is primarily about Ukraine's future in NATO and the European Union.

Concerns loom over Russia's acquisition of weapons - in particular missiles, drones and parts for their manufacture - from Iran, North Korea and China.

In the third year of the devastating war, there is real concern about Ukraine's ability to maintain its infrastructure, including an electricity grid that functions amid Russian attacks.

But the biggest of them may be the US policy towards Ukraine after the presidential election this fall.

Although Russia is unable to seize large areas of Ukraine, Kyiv's prospects for regaining most of the territory are also diminishing. Ukraine is focused on developing its defence and delivering deep blows in the rear of Russia.

Former intelligence officer Eric Ciaramella said that over the past 18 months it has become clear that neither Russia nor Ukraine “have the capabilities to significantly change the situation on the battle lines.”

The United States, he said, has always defined its strategic goal “as a Ukraine that is democratic, prosperous, European and secure.” The United States and its allies will need to make long-term investments to give Ukraine the ability to hold its ground, drain Russia, and inflict damage, both Ciaramella and incumbent U.S. officials say.

“It's still a very unclear scenario. That is why Western leaders also really need to focus on integrating Ukraine into European and transatlantic security structures,” Ciaramella said.

Last month, the European Union agreed to start membership talks with Ukraine. Although NATO is not yet ready to invite Ukraine to join, this week Alliance leaders are going to endorse language that almost promises Kyiv that it will become part of the alliance.

The statement is intended to avoid a repeat of what happened at last year's summit in Vilnius, where leaders said “the future of Ukraine is NATO” but were not accompanied by any specific invitation. Diplomats called the confusing statements a “salad of words,” and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky angrily complained about the lack of a timeframe for membership.

The possibility of Ukraine joining NATO seemed far away before Russia's invasion in 2022. The Allies did not want to provoke Russia or take on large security commitments. Since then, Ukraine's partnership with the United States, the UK, and other European countries has strengthened, and the West has poured billions of dollars into training and equipping the Ukrainian army.

Keeping Ukraine from joining NATO has been the goal of Russia's ruler, Vladimir Putin, since the war began, but ironically his invasion made it more possible. Peace talks broke down in April 2022 when Moscow insisted on Ukraine's neutrality and vetoed any outside military assistance.

Since then, Ukraine has become even more committed to integration into Europe.

Russia seized the most pro-Russian parts of Ukraine in the first year of the war. U.S. officials privately say it will be even impossible for Ukraine to reclaim all of its territory, but it could push for more European integration if its performance on the battlefield is stronger.

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