Natallia Radzina: Lukashenka Was Ordered To Stage A Performance

What is behind the deployment of Belarusian troops to the Ukrainian border?

"The AFU violated the airspace of Belarus," Lukashenka said. The dictator spoke about some "destroyed drones" and ordered to send troops to the border with Ukraine.

What to expect from the Belarusian dictator in this situation? Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, told about this on the YouTube channel of the famous Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov:

— Lukashenka could not keep silent after the military operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. Here he plays in one pair with Putin. As I understand it, he received an order to urgently divert the forces of the Ukrainian army from the Kursk direction towards the Belarusian border.

Therefore, Lukashenka's threats began to sound, some "Ukrainian drones" were announced, which allegedly flew into Belarusian territory and were shot down. As it turned out, no drones from Ukraine came to Belarus. It was an absolute fake and a lie on the part of Lukashenka. He only needed an excuse to pull part of the Special Operations Forces and the army to the border with Ukraine. I do not think that this will be followed by an offensive and they will cross the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. In my opinion, this is a play to divert the attention of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the offensive in Russia.

Vitaly Portnikov suggested that large military units are not needed for provocations. The Ukrainian journalist named the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant as a possible target of such a raid by Belarusian troops. Natallia Radzina believes that a very limited number of military personnel can perform such tasks in Belarus:

— Special Operations Forces are needed for such raids. This is about 5,000 people. We have three special forces brigades — the 38th Brest Air Assault Brigade, the 103rd Vitebsk Brigade and the 105th Brigade from Maryina Horka. But I know that not everyone there is in such a mood to go and fight in Ukraine. Although they are being brainwashed as much as possible.

According to the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, Belarusians have no illusions about the Putin regime:

— The attack on Ukraine led Belarusians to an understanding of what Russia is. The sobering up began in 2020, when Putin openly supported Lukashenka and the suppression of the people's revolution. Then it became clear to Belarusians that Putin is no friend, he is no better than Lukashenka. In 2022, most Belarusians realized that we need to separate from this terrible eastern neighbor and move towards Europe.

The question is what can we do now when the forces are not equal. I think the situation will change. Putin does not have enough strength to make this war last too long. Even today, he does not have the strength to defend his own borders. Who went to defend the Kursk region? They abandoned the unfortunate conscripts, the Kadyrovites fled. And they are saying that in the fall he will have to carry out a new mobilization, and Putin really does not want to carry it out. Payments to contract soldiers, including for the death of their relatives, are huge. The budget can't help but feel them.

I see from the situation in Belarus that Putin can no longer invest such money in the stability of the Lukashenka regime as before. After all, not everything is so rosy in the Russian economy, which means that Russia is running out of money for its satellite states. It seems to me that everything can crumble at one moment and we are waiting for big changes. But this time for positive ones.

Vitaly Portnikov noted that the Belarusian dictator looks worse, comparing him with Gromozeka — the hero of the Soviet cartoon "The Mystery of the Third Planet". Natallia Radzina told what is known about his condition:

— He looks really bad. They said that he had diabetes, and he himself was using some hormones or steroids. He was always mentally unstable. When was he healthy? What Lukashenka said about his departure — he constantly talks about it. After all, the dictator understands that this is the best way to get into all the media. They reality is that Lukashenka is going to leave for 30 years. I think that Lukashenka is more likely to be carried his feet first than he will leave on his own.

I see that there are different moods among the officials today. They know that Lukashenka is not eternal, they know better than us about the real situation in Russia. They are perfectly able to count money and know how much money goes from Russia to Belarus. Therefore, officials are dissatisfied with Lukashenka today.

The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org believes that Lukashenka cannot leave a successor in his place:

— This is really a dictatorship of a personalistic type. Whoever tried to sit on his chair will not be able to keep the situation in the country, and Belarus is certainly waiting for changes. In any case, there will be a window of opportunity. Russia will also not be able to support the dictatorship, because it itself is waiting for the upheavals as a result of this war.

Vitaly Portnikov draws attention to the danger of Lukashenka for Ukraine, because he, according to the journalist, acts "without inhibition". Natallia Radzina calls not to give the Belarusian dictator extra subjectivity and understand that he is only the executor of Kremlin's will:

— To understand what to expect from Lukashenka, you need to understand what to expect from Putin. After all, Putin is the one who acts without inhibition, and Lukashenka is a puppet in his hands. Putin can use the territory of Belarus for some offensive movements towards Ukraine or the Baltic states, as they say in the last year — the seizure of the Suwalki corridor and the occupation of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. From this point of view, he is really dangerous. But you should not give him subjectivity. Lukashenka is absolutely dependent.

The question is whether Putin has the strength today. If he is not able to protect the Kursk region, then there can be no talk of any seizure of the Baltic states. Apparently, Russia's financial and human resources are not infinite. Looking at the current situation, Putin is incapable of such steps.

Vitaly Portnikov, commenting on the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, came to the conclusion that over time, pressure may also exert on the Belarusian regime.

Natallia Radzina believes that the best way to "raise the stakes" is to free Belarus from Lukashenka's pro-Russian dictatorship:

— American analyst Yuri Felshtinsky says that several conditions are necessary for Ukraine to win. These are deliveries of weapons, in particular, long-range missiles. Then — the opportunity to strike deep into Russia, including Moscow. He also believes that in order to defeat Russia, it is necessary to liberate Belarus. After all, this is Putin's balcony, a bridgehead from which it is convenient for him to threaten Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania with Latvia. The liberation of Belarus, according to this expert, will help Ukraine win this war. There are options. If we are talking about raising rates, maybe Ukraine and NATO will think about the liberation of Belarus.

The Belarusian people, if this happens, will support the liberators. If anyone will resist, it is a bunch of scumbags who rallied around Lukashenka. Even the army will go over to the side of the liberators if they come from Ukraine or NATO member states.

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