Natallia Radzina: It's Clear That Lukashenka's Panicking

22.08.2024, 15:09
22,068

There is no one to protect the dictator.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, believes that Lukashenka's latest statements in an interview with Russian propagandist Yevgeny Popov are dictated by fear. She told this on the YouTube channel of the famous journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov:

— I saw in Lukashenka's chaotic interview his fear and uncertainty about the current situation. I am sure that he was frightened by the entry of the Ukrainian army into the Kursk region. Lukashenka is well aware that Belarus may be next. He sees that fighting has been going on for two weeks, Putin is not able to oust the Ukrainians from his territory. The Ukrainian forces are advancing, Russian conscripts are sent in response. Obviously, there are not enough forces.

Lukashenka is panicking, he is just afraid, and this interview is proof of that. On the one hand, there were contradictory statements that "it is necessary to negotiate and live amicably", on the other hand, there were threats of the use of nuclear weapons. Then Lukashenka again swore allegiance to Putin, and then spoke about the need for peace. He says that "Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians will live together," and then insults Ukrainian women and threatens President Zelensky. It can be seen that the person is in a panic.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Charter97.org website said that Lukashenka was afraid of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on military facilities in Belarus. That is why the dictator transferred air defence forces and aviation to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border:

— A large-scale attack by Ukrainian drones on Moscow, I think he was also very frightened. Today it is Moscow, and tomorrow it may be Minsk. Let me remind you that there are two military bases in Belarus today, which can be targets for Ukrainian strikes. This is a radar station in Hantsevichy and a communication center of the Russian Navy in Vileika. I think that Lukashenka is very much afraid for his own security and understands how defenceless he is in this war.

If Putin is unable to defend the Kursk region, then where are the guarantees that if Ukrainian troops enter Belarus, he will protect this regime. Lukashenka is well aware that the Belarusian army will not die for him. He also knows perfectly well the attitude of the Belarusian people to himself.

Yevgeny Kiselev referred to reports in the Telegram channel that the Belarusian military is allegedly fighting on the side of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region. Natallia Radzina believes that this information can be true:

— We know that the Special Operations Forces entered Ukraine together with the Russian army in 2022. This was personally confirmed to me by Ukrainian sources. Then they were thrown back. Some of them died, some returned to Belarus.

Now part of the Special Operations Forces could be thrown into the Kursk region. Someone from the 38th Brest Air Assault Brigade, the 103rd Vitebsk Brigade and the 105th Brigade from Maryina Horka may be involved.

Let me remind you that there are Belarusian volunteers in the Kursk region who are fighting on the side of Ukraine. There is an online video in the media: a tank with the White-Red-White flag crossing a settlement in the Kursk region. It turned out that they were soldiers of the Belarusian tank unit Tur, which is part of the 225th Airborne Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This video greatly inspired Belarusians and very frightened Lukashenka himself.

The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org believes that sanctions have already forced Lukashenka to make concessions, and the pressure only needs to be increased:

— Judging by the actions that the Belarusian authorities are taking today, they are very much afraid of sanctions. The regime wants them removed. Now Lukashenka has begun to release a certain number of political prisoners. There was information that he signed a decree pardoning 30 prisoners of conscience.

So far, we know only half of the names of those released. These are people with serious illnesses, elderly prisoners. They are forced to sign petitions for pardon from Lukashenka. Of course, this is a drop in the bucket when compared with the number of prisoners who are in prisons. I note that the repressions do not stop. 30 people are released, but arrests and hostage-taking continue every day.

Lukashenka understands that he will not survive in today's conditions. The economy of Belarus needs to improve relations with the West. I think that now they are trying to negotiate the lifting of economic sanctions, in particular — with Belaruskali.

After the imposition of sanctions, Belarus lost both the European and Ukrainian markets. And the state of affairs in the economy today is unimportant. It can be seen that Putin cannot invest in Belarus in the same volume, because difficult times are coming for Russia itself. It is expensive to sponsor another Belarusian regime. Before the imposition of sanctions, 60% of trade accounted for the European Union and Ukraine. The regime was unable to compensate for these losses at the expense of Russia.

Today, it is necessary to strictly monitor the implementation of the sanctions that have already been imposed. It is important that they are not dispensed with, and, unfortunately, they are violated today. It is necessary to introduce secondary sanctions against those countries that help circumvent the restrictions imposed against the Lukashenka and Putin regimes. Then the sanctions will be really effective and will hit the regime.

But even the sanctions that exist, judging by Lukashenka's behavior, work. It is important to keep them in force. It is impossible to cancel them and make concessions to the regime, lifting sanctions against the same Belaruskali for several dozen released prisoners. It is necessary to maintain sanctions until the release of the last political prisoner in Belarus.

Natallia Radzina notes that the interest of Belarusians in independent media is only growing:

— For me, this is a good sociological service and a "mood barometer" in society. I see that the audience of the Charter website is only growing, and in some months it is even higher than during the revolutionary events of 2020. This suggests that people did not put up with it, despite all the risks of reading the resource, which the authorities recognized as extremist.

Belarusians are waiting for good news and would like to live in a free and democratic country. A significant part of the Belarusian society is against, despite what has been happening over the past four years — repression and the war in which Lukashenka is involved.

What is the reason for Lukashenka's statements that "Belarusians need to get used to the fact that he is not eternal"? The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org believes that the dictator is afraid of uncertainty:

— Before each election, Lukashenka begins to cry that "he is not eternal, he can die, take offense and leave." And he expects everyone to cry. But every time he goes to the polls, falsifies them, disperses protests and stays.

This time the situation may be different. Because the geopolitical situation and the situation in Belarus are completely different. Therefore, Lukashenka is in a hurry to hold elections [according to some reports, they may be held as early as February 2025 - Ed.], because he does not know what the state of affairs will be by the summer.

Ukraine is advancing. Which region will be next after Kursk? Moscow is being bombed with drones. This is the reason for Lukashenka's haste. I think that Putin is not interested in replacing him now — they do not change the lackeys at the crossing. Especially in wartime.

Some experts say that Lukashenka will not enter election. After all, his state of health is terrible. So far, I can't imagine who he should put in his place. Maybe it will be one of the officials — Volfavich, Halavchenka or the same Petkevich. So far, I don't really believe in this scenario. But I can't say with 100% certainty that it is excluded.

Let me remind you that Lukashenka recently signed a decree introducing criminal liability for insulting and using violence against the former head of state and his family. Either Lukashenka realized that he really is not eternal, or he is planing his future, because he does not know what could happen. After all, who two weeks ago could have predicted the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region? Yesterday we could not imagine that there would be a massive drone attack on Moscow.

Could there be a strike in Belarus? The Belarusian journalist says that all the conditions may arise for this over time:

— In an interview, Lukashenka said that "Belarusians should provide for themselves." I then read people's outraged comments. The Belarusians said: "Why do we pay taxes!?". If we look at the republican budget, the lion's share goes to the bloated bureaucracy, law enforcement agencies and the army. The minimum goes to education, medicine, and infrastructure. If Lukashenka says that "guys, survive on your own", then I do not exclude strikes at a certain time.

What event will force Belarusians to protest? Natallia Radzina expressed the opinion that the trigger could be the victory of Ukraine and the defeat of Russia:

— At this point, Belarusians will have a chance to achieve freedom for their country. It is very important that the Kremlin does not care about us at this time. Although, if you look at today's events, the Kremlin is not up to the Kursk region.

Putin today is unable to defend his own borders. Who will he throw in Belarus? Conscripts? But there are not enough of them even to protect the Kursk region. Apparently, he is afraid to declare mobilization.

I am curious why Putin called the military actions in the Kursk region a "counter-terrorist operation". Maybe for the reason that if he calls the war a war, no one will come to his aid?

If the Chechens scatter and refuse to fight for Russia, then who, the Kazakhs, will go to fight for Russia if we take the CSTO. Belorussians? Won't go. And Tajiks with Kazakhs and Armenians will not go.

And who will defend the Lukashenka regime? The last news I read before our broadcast: the Embassy of Belarus was pelted with eggs and potatoes in Armenia because of Lukashenka's words that "who needs these Armenians but us". Studying with an alcoholic addict Medvedev? Lavrov's school? That's what the CSTO after that?

There is no one to protect dictators. Therefore, Lukashenka is trying to survive on his own. I don't think he can do it.

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Natallia Radzina: It's Clear That Lukashenka's Panicking

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