Chinese State Council Chairman Makes Belarusian Authorities Buckle?

This follows from the final communiqué.

During the recent visit of Li Qiang, the head of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, to Belarus, a lot of words were said about the centuries-old friendship between the brotherly peoples, advanced Chinese technologies and coincidence of geopolitical views. At least by the Belarusian side.

However, the high-ranking Chinese official came, obviously, not to commemorate the joint contribution to the victory in the Second World War.

The Belarusian authorities have always placed great hopes on China. And recently they have become even more hopeful, because there is no one to hope for except China. The Chinese market has become the second most important for Belarusian goods after Russia.

The only problem is that Belarusian interest is not reciprocated. The joint communiqué on the results of Li Qiang's visit to Minsk consists of 17 thousand words. But the essence of Chinese interests in Belarus fits into one paragraph.

‘The two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation on China-Europe goods trains... to ensure together the safety of China-Europe goods train channels,’ the document reads.

This is because China's main interest in Belarus lies in the railway transit of Chinese cargoes to Europe through the Belarusian territory. 90% of these goods are delivered by sea. But the Belarusian route has its own advantages. If it takes 15-20 days for Chinese cargoes to reach the Polish border by sea, it takes 5-7 days by railway.

In 2021, $40 billion worth of cargo was transported along this route, two-thirds of which was Chinese exports. In 2022 - 2023, the volume of traffic fell by half.

However, since the beginning of this year, Belarusian transit has been doing well again. In the first quarter, the volume of Chinese cargo transported via the Belarusian railway increased one and a half times compared to the first quarter of last year.

So the Belarusian route is important for China. That is, in principle, China can do without the Belarusian route. China has no irreplaceable routes. But it would be better not to do without it anyway.

The only problem is that the Belarusian authorities are not coping well with their duties. The conflict between Minsk and Warsaw has threatened railway transportations more than once. The Polish authorities say that they can completely close the border for any cargoes travelling through Belarus.

The Chinese authorities are not very concerned about who is right and who is wrong in the Belarusian-Polish dispute. The Chinese authorities are interested in the fate of their cargoes, which go through the Belarusian territory to Europe.

And judging by the fact that Belarus undertook to ensure ‘the safety of transport channels’ in the final communiqué, the head of the State Council of China has found arguments understandable to the Belarusian authorities. Of course, the Belarusian authorities can't afford to upset China.

Feliks Mirski, ‘Belarusians and the Market’

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