Rzeczpospolita: Lukashenka's Power Is Flimsy

The dictator will have little time to escape.

The Editor-in-Chief of the prominent Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita Bogusław Chrabota believes that Russia is seeking to send Belarusian troops to Ukraine. But for Lukashenka, this decision may be the beginning of the end.

Charter97.org website provides a translation of the article from Polish:

— The Belarusians are already involved in this war. These are Kastus Kalinouski and Pahonia regiments and the Terror separate detachment. Several thousand brave and desperate Belarusians who sided with Ukraine in this unjust confrontation.

They have been taking part in hostilities since 2014, and the last years of a full-scale war have made them experienced in combat. They are real killers, when compared to Lukashenka's troops. Knowing their combat value and determination, the dictator really has something to fear.

And they look forward to the day when they will have a chance to liberate Minsk from his dictatorship. Lukashenka will have little time to escape. Just like the Ceausescu couple, Saddam Hussein or Gaddafi. Therefore, before fulfilling Putin's long-standing decision to participate in the war with Kyiv, he should carefully watch the video with the last minutes of this nightmarish quartet.

If only he could still hope to be protected by a people loyal to the leader. But it's also just a fairy tale. Until recently, Belarusians were considered a modest and passive people. But that all changed four years ago when they took to the streets en masse to protest the stolen presidential election.

Yes, then Lukashenka crushed the freedom-loving aspirations of his compatriots. And in the short term, he won. But at the same time, he became an object of universal hatred. Lukashenka rules only thanks to the support of corrupt elites and corrupt special services. It is supported only by terror and fear. And, probably, he already knows that this is a powder keg. A spark is enough for it to break out, and the people with their treacherous dictator will massacre.

An attack on Ukraine can be this spark. Belarusians are not Russians. They have more contact with the world. They are leaving for the West. Paradoxically, Lukashenka's power is flimsy.

That is why the dictator is against active participation in the war, he is dodging and manoeuvring. Lukashenka is afraid that by sending his troops to Kyiv, he will sign a death sentence for himself. Because the chances of some kind of "Belarusian blitzkrieg" are small.

Completely inexperienced Belarusians would face the Ukrainian experienced fighters armed with Western weapons. Will the support of Putin's army involved in other areas of the front be enough? We'll never know. Will Putin send “rescue helicopters” when the need arises? It is hard to say.

Therefore, Lukashenka wriggles like an eel in a frying pan. I do not know whether it is worth supporting him in this twine, or, rather, vice versa. Because maybe a failed attack on Ukraine is the only chance to tear the country out of his clutches. We know geography. Only 400 km separates Minsk from the Ukrainian border. About six to seven hours by the infantry fighting vehicles of the Kalinouski regiment.

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