Deutsche Welle: Poland Puts Forward Three Demands To Lukashenka
29- 6.08.2024, 7:57
- 51,254
The border may be closed.
The Polish authorities are talking about the conditions for normalising relations with official Minsk, otherwise they are threatening to close the border for cargo traffic completely. It is not the first time Warsaw is trying to put pressure on the Belarusian regime - about a month ago, the Polish authorities even involved China in resolving the situation.
Warsaw probably considers Lukashenka's "peace-loving" statements about readiness for dialogue, visa-free travel for European citizens, reducing migration activity at the border and the release of some political prisoners as insufficient actions. Deutsche Welle has analysed what the Polish authorities are demanding from Belarus, what has already been achieved and what Warsaw is ready to do in case of escalation of the situation.
Poland Has Three Conditions, Minsk Calls Them "Blackmail"
Warsaw has been talking about its conditions for the normalisation of relations for months. On July 22, Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Andrzej Sheina voiced them once again. According to him, Warsaw insists on three things - an end to the migration crisis on the border, the extradition of the person accused of killing a Polish soldier and the release of imprisoned Poles, including journalist Andrzej Poczobut.
If these conditions are not fulfilled, the Polish authorities threaten to close the borders, about which Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski reminded recently, noting that "the Belarusian regime may leave no other option." Poland has already temporarily slowed down transit at the border under the pretext of more thorough checks at the terminal in Malaszewicze.
And although Aliaksandr Lukashenka has recently made a statement about the readiness for dialogue with the West, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhenkou responded to Poland's conditions by saying that Warsaw's demands are unacceptable and called them "Polish blackmail".
Migration Pressure Decreased, But Not Disappeared
It cannot be said that Poland's pressure has been fruitless. Recently, the situation with migrants at the border has been calmer. On July 23, Polish Minister of Interior and Administration Tomasz Siemoniak spoke about the reduction of the number of attempts to cross the border with Belarus illegally by more than 70%. However, the official attributed it to the introduction of a buffer zone on the border with Belarus.
On July 3, Lukashenka released some political prisoners, but journalist and activist of the Union of Poles of Belarus Andrzej Poczobut was not among them. Kamil Klysinski, an expert of the Warsaw Centre for Eastern Studies, believes that Minsk was really influenced by the risk of stopping the cargo flow, which, in his opinion, is the only thing that can somehow restrain the Belarusian regime.
The expert doubts the fulfilment of another Warsaw's condition on extraditing the suspect in the killing of a Polish soldier: "Of course, he means nothing to the Belarusian authorities. However, here comes the problem of face-saving, which is important for any totalitarian regime - if they extradite this man, it will be considered a weakness in their understanding".
According to the Polish media, the Polish authorities are negotiating with Belarus on the release of Andrzej Poczobut at the level of low-level officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and consular services of Poland.
However, as vice-chairman of the Union of Poles of Belarus Marek Zanevsky told Radio Racyja on July 26, Poczobut, who has been imprisoned for 40 months, is still in the colony in Navapolatsk. "He is being kept in isolation in the punishment cell, and nothing is happening. All this information that has been leaking for the last few months - some people were saying that he had been released, some people were saying that he had been taken abroad - it's not true, it's all fake. We are very sorry that this is happening. The situation with Andrzej remains very difficult, and as of today we don't see it improving," said Zanevsky.
Will Poland Close Border With Belarus?
Kamil Klysinski admits that Warsaw may indeed go for closing the border, if it is forced by circumstances: "But one should understand that sometimes the threat of using an extreme instrument is more successful than its use. However, Lukashenka should not think that he can endlessly test Polish patience. The West reacts slowly because it has to follow procedures and take into account the rights of different individuals, but the response can be tough".
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