Political Scientist: Israel Received Immediate Warning
- 6.08.2024, 12:55
- 12,418
It's necessary to reconsider the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times write that Iran is preparing for a direct war with Israel. How realistic is this today?
Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center of Applied Political Studies:
— I will make one important clarification right away: after all, the most expected scenario is a one-time attack by Iran, possibly together with the Lebanese Hezbollah. That is, not a large full-fledged war, but a one-time attack. Perhaps with a retaliatory attack by Israel, as it was before.
Both Iran and Israel are not interested in a big and long war now. It's too risky for them. It is also not in the interests of the big players: the US, the EU and the Middle East. Therefore, everyone hopes that this attack by Iran, caused by the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran, will still be one-time and will not lead to a large and long war.
Reduces the possibility of a major war and the fact that there is no land border between Iran and Israel. They can fight only by inflicting air strikes on each other. However, Hezbollah can attack Israel from southern Lebanon. But Israel has more forces there.
— Tehran requested military assistance from Russia, in particular, air defence. Now the head of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, is in Iran. What could be Moscow's involvement in this potential conflict?
— It has long been obvious that Moscow and Tehran have become military allies. This is long overdue for Israel to understand.
The government of Benjamin Netanyahu still pursues a very cautious policy towards Moscow, fearing that if Israel helps Ukraine more actively, then Russia will actively help Iran. It has been helping for a long time, and now it is already open.
Russia's supply of air defence systems to Iran is clearly related to the conflict between Iran and Israel. This is a signal to Israel that it is necessary to supply weapons to Ukraine. This will be the most effective response to such actions by Russia. Fear won't help. In this case, the separation has already occurred.
Russia no longer cares about Israel's reaction, including because it is very weak. The Russian Federation is only increasing its military assistance to Iran because of it. Moreover, there is a mutual exchange: Iran supplies its weapons to the Russian Federation, and Russia supplies certain types of weapons to Iran. This is a confirmation of the formed not only political, but also military alliance between Iran and the Russian Federation. I repeat, this alliance is objectively directed against Israel, they should understand this.
Deliveries of air defence systems to Iran are a direct signal that Israel's policy towards Ukraine should be reconsidered.
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