Military Analyst: Purposes Of Operation By Ukrainian Forces In Russian Kursk Region

Under what scenario will events develop?

Since yesterday, Russian social media have been reporting on the very rapid progress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region. Today there was information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied a number of settlements in the Sudzha district of the Kursk region.

What is actually happening in the Kursk region today. Is this the same raid that we saw performed by Russian volunteers, or a full-fledged military operation? The Charter97.org website talked about the situation with the Ukrainian defence observer of the Information Resistance Group, Oleksandr Kovalenko:

— If you use exclusively military terminology, then this is neither one nor the other. This is something average, based on the information that is available in open sources. What is a sabotage and reconnaissance operation? DRGs usually consist of a small number of personnel, for example 10, 20, 30 people. But any sabotage and reconnaissance group can be strengthened to perform a wider range of tasks. That is, it can be reinforced not only, for example, by artillery fire or aviation support, it can also be reinforced by combat vehicles.

Usually SRGs do not move on heavily armored or lightly armored vehicles, something fast and inconspicuous can be used in case. But for the most part, operations are performed on foot. However, the group that entered the territory of the Kursk region, it, in general, does not belong to the average SRG.

According to the data of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, published yesterday, 300 people took part in the entry into Russian territory. Roughly speaking, this is three companies, or half of such a medium battalion. There was, of course, a mechanized component, artillery support, and so on.

But on the other hand, three companies cannot carry out a combined-arms offensive operation covering a front of 25 kilometers. Now, if you believe, again, Russian resources, uncontrolled are the territories from Nikolaevo-Daryino to Oleshki. And this is almost 25 kilometers, if not directly, but completely along the border, then we get such a front.

300 people simply cannot perform such a task, this is not their level. Currently, again, according to the information of Russian occupation resources, the front stretches for about 20 kilometers from Rubanshchyna to the Zeleniy Shliakh, this is near Sudzha itself on the Rylsk-Sudzha highway.

This is clearly not a diversionary operation. Can it be called a full-fledged combined-arms one? Also, no. This is something average that performs a certain functionality.

— What are the goals of this operation?

— It is difficult to say, probably, the creation of a sanitary zone.

— How could the events develop?

— Further, events may develop according to the scenario of expanding the sanitary zone on the left and right flanks, that is, to the west and to the east. But still, there will be more attention to the western direction, since the control of the road to Sudzha is quite an important task for even a small contingent. Well, plus, among other things, Sudzha itself, taking into account its landscape and geographical features, can be a fairly convenient stronghold for the sanitary zone.

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