'Putin Needs Lukashenka For This Very Purpose'

1.09.2024, 13:23
30,034

Ukraine wonders whether the dictator will aggravate the situation.

On Sunday, August 25, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated the unfriendly actions of Belarus:

"The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, under the guise of exercises, concentrate a significant number of personnel, in particular Special Operations Forces, weapons and military vehicles, including tanks, artillery, MLRS, using air defence and engineering equipment, in the Homel region on the northern borders of Ukraine. The presence of mercenaries of the former Wagner PMC was also spotted. Conducting exercises in the border strip, close to the Chornobyl NPP, poses a threat to the national security of Ukraine and world security as a whole."

This was preceded by Lukashenka's statement about "more than 20 brigades and battalion groups that will be involved on the border with Ukraine to prevent a breakthrough", together with the Iskander and Polonez systems with a range of 200-500 km. That is, it is already a threat not only to Ukraine, but also to Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

The reason for the transfer of troops and weapons to the border was the seemingly mythical Ukrainian drones that Lukashenka saw in the skies of Belarus in early August, but no one found their wreckage and did not provide relevant evidence, TSN recalls.

Later, when Minsk was accused by Russian propagandists and Z-warriors of withdrawing Belarusian forces from the Ukrainian border in July, which allegedly allowed the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, Lukashenka gave an interview to State Duma deputy and husband of propagandist Skabeeva Yevgeny Popov, where he tried to justify himself and threaten Ukraine. However, it turned out not very convincingly, given the signals about the impossibility of using nuclear weapons, because their few allies (first of all, probably, China) will turn away from Belarus and Russia.

To the official statement of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the representative of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Anatol Hlaz, replied that Minsk had not received "official appeals" from Kyiv demanding the withdrawal of troops from the common border. The official message on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine was called information "on the Internet, where there is enough of anything".

Now, according to the speaker of the State Border Guard Service Andrei Dzemchanka, Ukraine is strengthening the border with Belarus. So far, no non-standard or provocative actions, movements of weapons and personnel of the Belarusian army have been recorded along the state border. Nevertheless, under the guise of exercises or under pressure from the Russian Federation, Minsk concentrates a certain number of its units in the depths of its territory.

"The situation there is under constant monitoring. Ukraine is at war, defending itself, so it is strengthening the border to prevent a second invasion. Belarus constantly conducts exercises and deploys its forces. The Belarusian authorities are playing along with the Russian Federation and are doing everything possible for Ukraine to keep part of its army in this direction," Andrei Dzemchanka added.

The threat from the north: why Belarus is accumulating troops

Since February 24, 2022, Minsk has been a coaggressor of Moscow. At the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, Lukashenka "kindly" provided Putin with the territory of Belarus for the offensive of Russian troops on Kyiv. Ukraine believes that this may happen again. Therefore, since 2022, Ukrainians have significantly strengthened the border with Belarus, which is 1000 km.

A week ago, the monitoring group Belaruski Hayun reported that on August 10, Belarus began to transfer its forces south to the Homel region [Polish experts remind that it was there on the eve of February 24, 2022 that the Russian military had a springboard for further invasion – Ed.], to the border with Ukraine. As of August 23, about 1,000 military personnel were concentrated there.

Experts doubt that there is a danger of a second major offensive against Kyiv or Chernihiv region from the territory of Belarus. Even taking into account the presence of a certain number of the Wagnerites in Belarus, Lukashenka needs to call up reservists. Back in 2022, Minsk assured that, if necessary, it could summon up to 500,000 troops. "The MoD, if necessary, can put up a resource of 500,000 conscripts, and we are talking about a prepared reserve," said Belarusian Defense Minister Viktar Khrenin. However, given the huge migration abroad, especially of men, this is a fantastic figure for Belarus.

To create a real threat to Ukraine from the north, Russia needs to transfer its troops to Belarus, and in large numbers, as it was on the eve of February 24, 2022. The Kremlin has no additional reserves yet. So far, they cannot even stop the promotion of the AFU in the Kursk region, because they lack a mobilization resource.

“Russia has long sought to deepen Belarus' involvement in the war against Ukraine, but in this particular case, the Kremlin is pursuing a very specific goal. Putin hopes that by creating a potential Belarusian threat along the northern border of Ukraine, he will be able to force Kyiv to pull back Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, easing pressure on its overstretched army," Peter Dickinson, an expert at the Eurasian Center, writes in his article for the Atlantic Council.

According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine in 2014-2019, Pavlo Klimkin, Lukashenka will raise rates only if he understands that the Chinese cannot protect him from this. Last week, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Li Qiang was in Moscow and Minsk. He is personally loyal to Xi Jinping and is actually the second person in the Chinese hierarchy. Both Putin and Lukashenka listen to Xi Jinping.

"The Chinese factor is an important part of why Belarusians today remain 'independent'. In addition, perhaps Putin would have already 'eaten' them. Although this is not an easy story, Lukashenka is not stupid, he understands this perfectly. I think somewhere inside he has 'special' feelings for Putin. Therefore, I am sure that this [military maneuvers of Belarus – ed.] is a completely conscious psychological and military pressure agreed with the Russian Federation," Klimkin says.

In addition, Lukashenka's actions and the saber-rattling of the Belarusian army on the border with Ukraine require additional communication from Kyiv by Western allies and partners. For a long time, Moscow has not been shelling Ukraine with missiles and "Shaheds" from the territory of Belarus. Although Russian drones have recently been flying very often through the territory of Belarus in order to then hit targets in Ukraine. However, if this shaky status quo changes, it is considered likely that Russian missiles and drones will increasingly cross NATO's “borders.”

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'Putin Needs Lukashenka For This Very Purpose'

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