Political Scientist: China Will Strive To Make Lukashenka Leave

And it can influence Putin to do this.

In June, China postponed the delivery of 15 new BKG2 electric freight locomotives to Belarus, which were supposed to be delivered at the end of 2023. Then it was reported that the new delivery dates were postponed to 2025-2026. However, recently it was reported that China refused to supply these trains to Belarus due to fear of US sanctions.

Belarusian political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets commented on the decision of the Chinese authorities to Charter97.org:

— This is a significant blow to the railway transport system of Belarus, because the second main supplier is the Russian Federation, which also is experiencing certain difficulties with the production of rolling stock. Of course, it is necessary to regularly update the rolling stock fleet, and given that the option to use Chinese electric locomotives is now closed for Belarus, a certain kind of difficulties will arise, not critical, but unpleasant.

Such sanctions can be lifted even not because of any political aspects in Belarus, they will probably be lifted only after the war in Ukraine is completed in some form. Until then, it is hardly possible to expect any lifting of sanctions against Belarus, because it is actually today a country that, together with Russia, is involved in the war against Ukraine. Accordingly, the sanctions measures that were applied, including in relation to this case, are directly related to the war.

— How does this situation characterize the current level of relations between China and the Lukashenka regime, is Belarus of economic interest to Beijing now?

— At the end of August, the Prime Minister of China visited Belarus, this is, I would say, an important visit. It is obvious that Beijing considers Belarus as a zone for its entry into the European market. In this situation, it is important for China that Belarus be such a stable region that opens logistics gates for the entry of Chinese goods into the European market.

Lukashenka's actions against neighboring countries pose a certain threat to China and jeopardize logistics communications, routes, and so on. In this situation, over the past four years, the Minsk regime has created a lot of uncomfortable cases for Beijing, including those regarding the projects that China planned to implement in Belarus. Some of them were in limbo, some were disrupted in terms of implementation, for example, the construction of a potash plant in the Lyuban district, and a number of other areas.

In this regard, Lukashenka is not a comfortable partner for any business for China today. Any sanctions that are imposed on Belarus create certain troubles for Beijing. From this point of view, it would be beneficial for China to make Lukashenka leave his post, and let some more sane person to come who could build more pragmatic relations.

Lukashenka expects that China will be his main partner and ally. But at the same time, I believe that Belarus is important for China not from the point of view of some economic and trade relations, but from the point of view of logistics. This is the first thing that China sees, looking at the map, that the routes passing through Belarus should be safe. This is something that affects any other relationships and communication.

If Lukashenka is a threat to such communications, then, probably, China will strive to make him leave his post. Including — influencing Lukashenka's ally, Putin, for whom China is also a very important partner today. Therefore, China's influence on the upcoming election campaign will be very high. Beijing's position on the decision of Lukashenka (or someone else) in the "elections" may be important for the further development of the political situation in Belarus.

— Do you see signs of Chinese pressure on the Lukashenka regime in connection with the situation on the Polish-Belarusian border?

— Right, obviously. Since July 4, for the first time, political prisoners have been released, largely due to the position of China and the coordinated actions of Poland. The Polish authorities informed the Chinese side in advance during the visit of President Andrzej Duda to Beijing, and the actions that were taken to temporarily restrict the movement of goods across the Belarusian-European border influenced certain actions directly on the part of Aliaksandr Lukashenka to release people who are in prison.

The process has been started, the question is how long it will take. I believe that a more decisive position on the part of Poland and other European nations is needed in this regard. You cannot talk to Lukashenka in the language of diplomacy, you can only talk to him in the language of ultimatum and force, since he does not understand another language.

In this regard, China can look at these things very pragmatically, taking into account the position taken by Poland and partly by Germany. This applies not only to political prisoners, but also to illegal migrants, which are a problem for European countries. Therefore, Lukashenka's actions are very disturbing to China, because it is a threat to the countries to which China sends its products. In this regard, China and Poland apparently found mutual understanding on the issue of attitude towards Lukashenka.

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