Forbes: AFU Have New Strategy In Kursk Region

The encirclement of Russian troops is possible.

The Ukrainian defence forces have a new strategy in Kursk region - to move quickly and take Russian troops into encirclement.

Forbes analyst David Axe writes that when Ukrainian forces broke through the Russian defences on a new section of the Russian-Ukrainian border near the village of Novy Put last week, it shocked many people, but now their aim is becoming clearer.

‘A Ukrainian tactical group, apparently led by the 95th Air Assault Brigade, is cutting a path on the right as it advances beyond Novy Put and through the southern neighbourhoods of the nearest Russian town, Veseloye. In other words, Ukrainian forces are turning towards the main Kursk bulge. If the Ukrainians advancing northeast of Novy Put can join up with the Ukrainians on the main section, they will cut off potentially thousands of Russians between themselves and the border,’ the analyst writes.

As the analyst points out, local geographical conditions are favourable to the AFU's attempts to encircle Russian troops. The Seim River forms a natural border along much of the northern edge of the potential pocket, bounded on the left and right flanks by advancing Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian armed forces have destroyed all permanent bridges over the Seim in the area, so all Russian troops south of the Seim - and there may be entire battalions of them - depend on temporary pontoon bridges or a narrow land bridge over the town of Korenevo.

It is for this reason that the Ukrainians relentlessly shell the pontoons as soon as the Russians set them up. It is also the reason why Ukrainian forces are advancing towards Korenevo, clearly intending to destroy the land bridge, the analyst notes.

In addition, David Axe points out, the balance of forces in Kursk region may also affect the Ukrainians' chances of success in a potential encirclement. According to his estimates, Kyiv has allocated about 10,000 troops for the two-sided assault on Kursk. Moscow may have sent 38,000 troops to the region, but many of them are poorly trained young conscripts.

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