Karbalevich: Lukashenka Has Realized His Power Is Imaginary
9- 2.09.2024, 14:24
- 11,266
He is also afraid to make the wrong move.
The Belarusian dictator Lukashenka understands that his power is illusory. Political scientist Valer Karbalevich writes about this in a column for Radio Svaboda.
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As an example, the expert cites the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, from which Lukashenka sometimes withdraws troops, then suddenly pulls them back.
“It would seem, why bother? But the reason is that this issue is very painful for society. The absolute majority of the population is against the country's participation in the war. Lukashenka is afraid of falling into dissonance with society, despite all his all-encompassing power,” Karbalevich believes.
Such situations are well described in political literature, the expert continues.
“The fact is that a strong popular leader who enjoys broad public support can lead society even in a direction in which it does not really want to move. He can even go against the dominant current of public sentiment without much harm to his own image and rating. It is known that unpopular reforms can only be carried out by popular politicians. After all, they have a large mandate of trust.
According to him, failures in this behavioral matrix began in the second half of the 2010s, when Lukashenka gradually ceased to resonate with public opinion.
The first trigger for the new stage was the unsuccessful attempt to combat “social parasites” in 2017, which caused mass popular protests.
And Lukashenka's desire in 2020 to oppose other countries in the fight against the pandemic caused an explosion of public indignation.
“Four years of political terror helped suppress the protests. But repression did not restore the people's trust. Lukashenka himself is well aware that his power is now based on violence, not on the people's mandate. Therefore, despite the supposed absolute power, he cannot afford what he could do before,” concludes Karbalevich.
Hence, according to him, the fear of making a wrong move. And the endless assurances that Belarus will not fight and that sovereignty is unshakable.
“Because there is a feeling that the population does not really believe in all this,” continues Karbalevich.
After all, a government that, according to the conviction of the majority, is unfair cannot demand from the people the kind of sacrifices that a government based on real support from the people can demand.
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