Karbalevich: Lukashenka Is Constantly Afraid

The authorities are afraid of some kind of internal unrest.

Belarusians were once again called upon to prepare for a war that “no one is unleashing against us yet.”

Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a meeting with the Prime Minister and heads of security agencies at the Obuz-Lesnovsky military training ground on September 24. His statements traditionally mentioned the military threat. Drones became one of the main topics of the meeting.

Radio Svaboda political observer Valer Karbalevich explained to Filin what the statements made at the training ground could mean.

— I would look at the situation a little more broadly, because Lukashenka was not only talking about drones. He was talking about the army as a whole, that it should be brought to a state of full combat readiness.

He actually said it was necessary to check everyone again, and mobilize everyone again. And not only the military, but also the people's militia, territorial defense, and even hunters and fishermen. To create a new unit from contract soldiers.

That is, this policy of militarization, militaristic fever continues all the time, especially since the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine. And we can say that since the beginning of the war, Lukashenka has held meetings devoted to defense almost twice a month.

And now he has simply returned to this practice. And now the task is to maintain not only the army, but also society in a state of mobilization readiness. That is, the formation of a fortress under siege. The enemy is around, the enemy is within — that is why mobilization is needed.

It is necessary in order to maintain the state apparatus, government structures, bureaucracy and society as a whole in a state of constant mobilization.

This helps maintain discipline and unties hands for political repression. In the end, if we are preparing for war, what games of democracy or liberalization can be played here? A besieged fortress is an ideal model for preserving power. And this is an ideal model for all non-democratic regimes.

Lukashenka constantly addresses this topic to maintain the atmosphere of imminent war. And that is why he is so contradictory. On the one hand, he says that we are preparing for war. On the other hand, he does not see any signs that they are going to attack us.

As for drones, the war in Ukraine has shown that they are a very effective weapon, given their cost and quality. Indeed, one can say that this war has led to serious changes in military tactics thanks to drones.

And the fact that he addressed this topic is quite understandable. I think that all armies in the world today have addressed the topic of drones, because they are actually very effective. And what Ukrainian drones are doing on Russian territory only emphasizes this.

And if we talk about Russian drones, then this is an unpleasant topic. And I do not want to voice this once again. Lukashenka spoke about it during his ceremonial speech on September 17. He spoke about it very indirectly. He hid in every possible way the fact that Russian drones carry some kind of danger and threat.

It is not in his interests to enter into any kind of polemic with Russia. Moreover, judging by everything, the reason for these flights is that the Ukrainian electronic warfare system was able to redirect these drones. They are flying in a completely different direction than they should.

And what can be done here in such conditions, if this is the main reason, is hard to say. This problem cannot be solved while there is a war in Ukraine.

The problem here is that all this destroys the propaganda myth about the peaceful skies over our country. And that Lukashenka is the guarantor of this peaceful sky, the guarantor of security. This is the main thesis with which he is going to run for president.

And Russian drones in the skies over Belarus spoil this picture. And therefore it is better not to mention them again.

— Another characteristic moment. Lukashenka has repeatedly called for preparations for war, spoken about it as if it were a decided moment. And at the same time, he warned those present that right now we will bring order to agriculture, and in the winter we will take on the army, the KGB and other security forces. What was that? As if there was a war on the horizon, and everything was on schedule for us.

— Most likely, Lukashenka himself does not believe in an imminent war, that Belarus will be attacked. And therefore, all exercises are better conducted in the winter, when there is snow on the fields. In this regard, everything is logical.

And the fact that not only the army is involved in the defense, but also the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the KGB, territorial defense and even hunters and fishermen, suggests that this is not only an external threat to the regime.

The authorities are constantly afraid of some kind of internal unrest. After all, the same hunters or militiamen are unlikely to pose a threat to any external enemy. Rather, they can be involved in times of internal unrest. For example, against the raid of soldiers from the Kastusyou Kalinouski regiment. And that is why they constantly keep this threat in mind. For some reason, Lukashenka thinks that the entire nation will rise to the defense of the regime during such unrest. Why he thinks so is his problem. And the fact that we are talking not only about an external conflict, but also about an internal one, seems obvious to me.

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