Armenia To Break Relations With Belarus?

Lukashenka's words have caused a diplomatic scandal.

Armenia's turn towards the West and away from Russia causes Yerevan's growing contradictions not only with Moscow, but also with Minsk. At the same time, Belarus is formally an ally of Yerevan in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a regional military-political bloc supervised by Russia, which besides Armenia and Russia also includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Deutsche Welle writes.

‘Who Needs Armenians?’, ‘Get Out of Armenia!’

A new round of tension in Armenian-Belarusian relations, which were already not cloudless due to Belarus' close ties with Azerbaijan, Armenia's regional rival, emerged after a number of harsh statements by Aliaksandr Lukashenka. In an interview with the Rossiya TV channel broadcast on August 19, he harshly criticised Armenia's policy towards the West.

Lukashenka, whose words are often perceived in Armenia as a reflection of the position of the Russian leadership, ironically stated, ‘Well, who needs Armenians but us? Nobody needs them. Let them develop their economy and focus on what they have. Where is France, who is Macron? Tomorrow there will be no Macron and everybody will forget about this Armenia’.

These words caused a wave of indignation in the Armenian society. Two days later, members of the ‘In the Name of the Republic’ party and their supporters held a protest rally in front of the Belarusian Embassy in Yerevan. The demonstrators were throwing eggs, tomatoes and potatoes at the walls and gates of the diplomatic mission, chanting the slogan ‘Get Out of Armenia!’. The protesters demanded from the authorities to sever diplomatic relations with Belarus and expel Belarusian diplomats from the country.

Yerevan and Minsk: Ambassador's Recall and Diplomatic Crisis

The diplomatic crisis between Yerevan and Minsk emerged immediately after Aliaksandr Lukashenka's trip to Azerbaijan in May this year, where he, being Armenia's ally, made a number of statements that actually supported Baku's actions in Nagorno-Karabakh. For example, Lukashenka described the 44-day fighting in the autumn of 2020 as a ‘war of liberation’. He also referred to his conversation with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, during which they came to the conclusion that ‘it is possible to win the war’.

In response, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that neither he nor other representatives of the Armenian government will visit Belarus again as long as Lukashenka remains in power. As a diplomatic gesture, Yerevan recalled its ambassador from Belarus for consultations.

Pashinyan also associated Lukashenka's stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia's decision to consider a possible withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). Earlier, Armenia had already announced the freezing of its membership in this organisation.

Moreover, in May, Pashinyan made a high-profile statement that at least two CSTO member states were involved in Azerbaijan's preparations for war in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to him, these countries were creating the appearance of helping Armenia. Yerevan is also not pleased that Belarus ‘supplied Azerbaijan with advanced weapons,’ as Politico previously reported.

Yerevan and Minsk Heading Towards a Breakdown of Relations?

Honourable chairman of the Yerevan Press Club, analyst Boris Navasardyan identifies two main reasons leading to the aggravation of Armenian-Belarusian contradictions. ‘The first is the growing tension in Armenian-Russian relations. The second is Belarus‘ close relations with Azerbaijan,’ Navasardyan notes in a conversation with DW.

Declaring on the one hand that Azerbaijan should become the leader of the South Caucasus region, and on the other hand criticising the Armenian leadership, Lukashenka, as Navasardyan believes, wants to please his partner in Baku.

Meanwhile, despite the outright crisis in the relations between Yerevan and Minsk, experts do not expect further aggravation of the conflict, as these relations, both in terms of economy and geopolitics, are not so important for both sides. Trade and economic ties between the countries, despite their being in the same economic bloc - the Eurasian Economic Union - are minimal. In the first half of 2024, the trade turnover between the two countries was $85 million, which does not even reach 1 per cent of the total foreign trade of the two countries.

‘Therefore, the current harsh statements towards each other should be considered in the context of political rhetoric, no more,’ Boris Navasardyan explains, while noting that a decline in diplomatic relations between Yerevan and Minsk could occur in only one case - a sharp deterioration in Yerevan's relations with Moscow. ‘This will already be a reflection of the state of Armenian-Russian relations,’ he believes.

Belarus - Part of the Main Line of Yerevan's Policy

The deterioration of relations with Belarus, according to Sergei Melkonyan, an analyst at APRI Armenia, a Yerevan-based research centre, is a continuation of one of the main lines of Armenia's foreign policy, which earlier reduced its participation in the CSTO to zero, is reluctantly taking part in CIS meetings and is distancing itself from Russia. For now, however, he does not expect such drastic moves as breaking off relations with Minsk.

‘Armenia is waiting for support from the West in this respect. If Yerevan is worsening relations with formal allies, it needs to get new allies. For example, we are talking about upgrading relations with the US to a strategic partnership,’ Melkonyan told DW.

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