‘Shaheds’ To Fly To Lukashenka?

4.09.2024, 11:03
17,008

The Kremlin is deliberately unnerving the Belarusian dictator.

The beginning of autumn was alarming for Russians - on the night of September 1, Ukrainian drones massively attacked Moscow. Will the strikes on their capital have any effect on the Russians? Charter97.org talked to Ukrainian political scientist and writer Volodymyr Tsybulko about this and other issues:

- Before the strike on Moscow, the Ukrainian armed forces marked out the perimeter where they could strike. Literally a week before the strike on the Russian capital, Kirov was hit, then a warehouse with oil products at the Vyatka combine was attacked. This is 800 kilometres from Moscow, and from the border with Ukraine it is about 1,500 kilometres. We can say that Ukraine showed its capabilities.

The strike on Moscow itself was a response to the terror that Moscow unleashed literally the day after celebrating Ukraine's Independence Day; it was a response for that terror. Also, Ukrainian forces responded to the strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv by hitting Belgorod with multiple rocket launchers.

Most likely, the AFU was aiming at some military facility, but given the work of the Russian air defence, the fact that multiple rocket launchers are weapons of such a non-selective nature, there were also attacks on civilian buildings. In fact, this is now seen as revenge for Kharkiv, which was shelled with ballistic missiles. Back then, ten huge missiles attacked a sports complex and other civilian infrastructure.

Now these strikes on Russia's power structure can be perceived as a demonstration of capabilities. Last winter, more than 40 cities in Russia froze to death because of unstable power supply. I think the Ukrainian forces are now signalling their capabilities and potential targets. This winter will be very difficult for Russia, at least much more difficult than the previous two winters for Ukraine.

- A Russian drone was recently shot down over the territory of Belarus for the first time. Why did Lukashenka take such a step?

- Probably, Lukashenka wanted to demonstrate to his own people the capabilities of the armed forces of Belarus. Common people have an opinion that Russia has taken all the ammunition and weapons from Belarus. This gives a feeling of defenselessness.

Common Belarusians have no fear of the armed forces of Ukraine or Lithuania, they know that the NATO military behave in a very civilised manner and in accordance with the Geneva Convention. This, by the way, can be seen now in the recaptured territories of Kursk region - the population is not afraid of the Ukrainian troops, they communicate normally. Residents of Kursk region are scared of the strikes of Russian troops.

That's why Lukashenka shot down the Russian drone, most likely, in order to demonstrate that the armed forces are on the alert. And he needed all these manoeuvres under the Ukrainian border to demonstrate that Belarus has an army, that it is capable of doing something. Shooting down the Russian drone is a way to cover up the clearing of warehouses and getting rid of armoured vehicles in favour of Russia, which Lukashenka has carried out in recent years.

- Is Lukashenka afraid of Russian drones flying into Belarus? Could the ‘shaheds’ over Belarusian territory be a warning to him?

- Most likely, Moscow is thus making Lukashenka nervous, making him more loyal. There is a feeling in the Kremlin that he is receiving security sponsorship not from Russia but from China. This creates a certain nervousness in Russia, so they remind Lukashenka that Beijing is far away and Moscow is close. After all, Lukashenka is in fact making good money now, during the war, on producing components for Russian armaments. So it seems to Moscow that he should be more loyal, even provide troops, at least to Bryansk and Kursk regions.

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‘Shaheds’ To Fly To Lukashenka?

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