‘Entourage Intimidating Lukashenka To Maximum Extent’

And it's doing it at the behest of Russia.

What is behind the redeployment of Belarusian troops to the border with Ukraine? The correspondent of the Russian service of the Voice of America tried to find out whether there is a cause for concern in these reports.

Ivan Stupak, a former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine and military expert, mentioned that according to official data, there are about 65 thousand people in the Belarusian army, including civilians who are engaged in servicing the military.

‘That leaves, at most, 45 thousand people, while the Russian army for the offensive on Kyiv (before the start of a full-scale invasion) has gathered 40 thousand servicemen. And if the entire Belarusian army has to advance on one region of Ukraine alone, let's remember how the Russian army ended such an offensive! It held out for one month and was forced to withdraw,’ he stressed in a commentary for the Russian service of the Voice of America. In addition, according to the Ukrainian military expert, the modern Belarusian army is ‘sterile,’ as it has no combat skills.

‘Lukashenka is very much stressed about it, as on the one hand there is Poland, which invests more than 4% of GDP in ‘defence,’ and has modern weapons. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia also invest money in the defence industry, as well as Ukraine, by the way. And Russia, no matter how you look at it, also has a great experience in this area, and only Belarus is lagging behind the countries that surround it,’ Ivan Stupak assesses the situation. And continues that the Belarusian army is also far behind the AFU in terms of air defence capabilities.

‘Therefore, I'm more than sure that Lukashenka will not get involved in this venture. Naturally, provided that he is not forced, removed from office by force and so on. I believe that he is preoccupied with transferring his power to one of his followers. In addition, his health condition is serious, which is not fun either,' emphasises the interviewee of the Voice of America. As for the regular reports about the escalation of the situation on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, the expert believes that this is part of the ‘hybrid war’ in which Lukashenka has become a participant largely at the will of the Kremlin.

‘For two years, the Ukrainian army has been forced to keep a significant part of people and hardware at the border, which is more than a thousand kilometres long (1,084.2 km - A.P.). And Lukashenka said twice that there are 120 thousand troops ‘on the other side’, i.e. on the Ukrainian side. Although we know that Lukashenka likes to lie a little, so this number can be divided by half. But 60 thousand military personnel is also serious data,’ continues Ivan Stupak. And finally suggests that Lukashenka is under pressure from such supporters of the ‘Russian world’ as Pavel Muraveika, Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Army, and Alexander Volfovich, Secretary General of the Security Council of Belarus.

‘And I believe that the Russians are scaring Lukashenka through them with an anti-Ukrainian agenda as much as possible. They say that it is necessary to gather the maximum number of troops on the border with Ukraine, so that Zelensky and Syrsky panic and start taking the maximum number of our military from Kursk region,’ summarises Ivan Stupak.

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