Bloomberg: Ukraine's Defeat Will Cost US Far More Than Aid

Support for Ukraine is in the interests of the United States

Far from saving money on US weapons that are being provided to Ukraine, a Russian victory in the war would require a surge in Pentagon spending of more than $800 billion through 2029, writes Anthony Capaccio (translated from the Charter97.org website), a defense/national security reporter at Bloomberg.

— The analysis by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) said the ultimate success of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion would change the face of Europe and embolden Russia to threaten members of the NATO military alliance.

The $808 billion increase, according to the report, would be required for the US to help deter, and if necessary defeat, a non-nuclear Russian attack beyond Ukraine. That amount would alter the Defense Department’s current five-year plan through 2029 to $5.2 trillion from $4.4 trillion, or about $165 billion more annually than planned for those years.

The AEI report focuses on the Pentagon's projected budget “required in a world where Russia defeats Ukraine and the potential cascading impacts on America’s security as other adversaries learn from Russia’s victory and the world’s pulling back support from Ukraine.” “We conclude here that supporting Ukraine is in America’s best interest from a financially focused perspective,” it said.

President-elect Donald Trump leaves open the possibility of either increasing aid to Ukraine or ending it altogether. This is an opportunity to force both Kyiv and Moscow to resolve the conflict, writes Anthony Capaccio:

Trump would inherit more than $3 billion in “presidential drawdown authority,” to dip into US military inventories for Ukraine if his administration chose to use it. He has given no indication he intends to ask Congress to approve further assistance, however.

The Biden administration is preparing to announce the final $500 million dollars in US military assistance it will provide to Ukraine, according to the sources.

“The near-term costs of assisting Ukraine so it can defend itself against Russia’s aggression are far less expensive than the long-term costs of allowing Russia to win,” AEI contended in its analysis.

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