Ukrainian Strikes Have Collapsed The Fuel Market In Russia

Fifty-seven Russian regions faced gasoline shortages.

At least 57 Russian regions have experienced disruptions in fuel supplies after Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, BBC has calculated. Problems were predominantly seen at independent gas stations. The publication took into account all cases reported since August, even if the situation on the ground has stabilized by now.

According to Bloomberg, the attacks affected one in three refineries in Russia. There were at least 14 attacks in August, eight in September and four more in the first ten days of October. According to analysis by Reuters, Bloomberg and S& P Global Commodity Insights, at least ten refineries, including export-oriented ones, were partially or fully shut down in August-September. The BBC calculates that Ukrainian drones have attacked 21 of the country's 38 largest refineries since January, a 48% increase over the whole of 2024.

Reuters reports that downtime at Russian refineries' primary capacity reached 23% in August, a record high in history, and rose even more in September. In October, oil refining volumes fell to 4.86 million barrels per day - down almost 10% from July - and became the lowest in five years, Bloomberg writes. According to an estimate by Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russia and Eurasia Studies, Russian refinery output has fallen by about 10% since the July peak.

Vakulenko notes that if the situation worsens, the Russian authorities have several options for action - from imposing limits on fuel consumption to temporarily relaxing environmental standards for gasoline. However, according to him, "at the current level of damage, refineries are restored in two to three weeks". The development of the crisis, the expert believes, will depend on the intensity of Ukrainian attacks and Kiev's production capabilities: "How many drones can Ukraine produce, how often and en masse will it be able to launch them, and will it continue to concentrate its efforts specifically on oil refining or will it choose other targets?"

With fuel refining declining and gasoline prices rising to a 14-year high, restrictions on single-handed fuel sales have been introduced in several Russian regions, as well as in annexed Crimea. To mitigate the crisis, the Russian government has banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, increased fuel purchases from Belarus and, according to Kommersant, is preparing to start imports from China, Singapore and South Korea.

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