ISW: Putin's Promises Are Worthless

U.S. analysts recalled the Budapest Memorandum.

The Kremlin's statements about its readiness not to attack Ukraine, as well as European and NATO countries after a possible peace agreement, are not credible. Russia has repeatedly demonstrated that it ignores international agreements if they no longer meet its interests. This conclusion was reached by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The reason for the assessment was a recent statement by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who said that Moscow was ready to legally enshrine a commitment not to carry out aggression against EU and NATO countries as part of an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

The ISW recalled that Russia had made similar promises before. In particular, we are talking about the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, according to which Moscow pledged to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine and respond to any acts of aggression against it in exchange for Kiev's renunciation of nuclear weapons. These commitments, as the events of subsequent years have shown, have been grossly violated.

Analysts also point out that Vladimir Putin has repeatedly changed Russia's domestic legislation to suit his own political goals. The 2020 constitutional reform, which allowed him to effectively zero out presidential terms and retain power, is cited as an example. This practice, ISW emphasizes, clearly demonstrates that both international treaties and the Kremlin's own constitution are not immutable for the Kremlin.

In the experts' opinion, this experience confirms that any guarantees from Russia without external control mechanisms have no real value. That is why Ukraine needs effective and reliable security guarantees that can prevent the repetition of Russian aggression in the future.

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