ISW: No Confirmation Of A "strike" On Putin's Valdai Residence Recorded

"Miracle," fake, or negligence?

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused Ukraine of a "strike" on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's Valdai residence, but the attack is not supported by evidence.

This is according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that the alleged strike on Putin's residence lacks the typical hallmarks of confirmed Ukrainian attacks that are typically found in open sources: geolocated video of the scene, flashes, fires or smoke near the sites, comments from local and regional Russian officials who typically downplay the strikes, and local media reports of damage.

In the case of the alleged strike near Putin's residence, ISW has not recorded any such video or reports to back up Lavrov's claim, analysts said.

Also, Lavrov's statements about the alleged shooting down of 89 Ukrainian drones over the Novgorod region are inconsistent with reports by the Russian Defense Ministry, which reported 47 downed drones on the night of December 28-29, undermining the credibility of the claim, ISW stressed.

The Institute for the Study of War added that Ukrainian forces had previously hit numerous military targets in the Novgorod region, which was supported by available evidence. The Kremlin has not provided any facts to back up its claim of a strike on Putin's residence on Dec. 29.

Analysts noted that the Russian opposition publication Sota reported that residents of Valdai did not hear air defense systems operating at night. The publication concluded that a strike on Putin's residence could only have occurred because of a "miracle" or negligence by the Russian military.

The publication also concluded that a strike on Putin's ultra-protected residence seems "technically impossible" and could only have occurred "by a miracle or with the purposeful connivance of the military command."

In addition, ISW emphasized that between 2022 and August 2025, Russia increased the number of air defense systems protecting Valdai from two to twelve.

On December 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of allegedly attacking Putin's Valdai residence with 91 drones and threatened a "retaliatory strike."

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called the statements "another lie of the Russian Federation" and emphasized that Russia could be preparing strikes on Kiev. He also called on allies, particularly the US and Europeans, to pressure Moscow to really seek to end the war.

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