Chinese Car Imports To Russia Have Collapsed By Half This Year

31.12.2025, 16:46
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A reason has been given.

Car shipments from China to Russia totaled $8.1 billion in January-November, the Gaidar Institute calculated based on data from the Chinese Customs Administration. Because of the increase in the utilization fee, they halved, its analysts wrote, noted The Moscow Times.

In total, China exported 6.34 million cars in 11 months, 19% more than a year earlier, according to the national association of automakers CAAM. The growth is in all directions, except Russia: 48% fewer cars were delivered here in November than a year ago.

China's total exports to Russia fell by 11.8% to $91.7 billion in January-November, and the share of the Russian market fell to 2.7% (-0.5 p. p.), but cars showed the worst result. Supplies of other categories of "machinery and equipment" decreased less significantly - by 10.9%, and Russian imports from China of other goods even slightly increased - by 3.6%, wrote analysts at the Gaidar Institute. They attribute the dip in car shipments to the increase in the scrappage duty. Since November 2024, it has increased 1.7-2.8 times for most passenger cars.

This trend will continue, experts believe. In 2026, the market will face a noticeable drop in sales of new passenger cars compared to the fall of 2025. - From 120-140 thousand cars per month to 80-90 thousand, primarily due to another increase in the scrappage fee, according to the general director of the analytical agency "Avtostat" Sergey Tselikov. The levy was raised from December 1, when coefficients were introduced for cars with power from 160 hp, and on January 1, the rates will be indexed by 10-20%. Taking this into account, as well as the increase in VAT from 20% to 22%, we can expect prices to rise by 10%, estimated Tselikov.

As a result, the share of Chinese passenger car brands in sales is falling. In 2023 it exceeded 60%, this November it fell to 44.7%, and a year earlier it was almost 55%, reported "Autostat".

Chinese car companies have withdrawn from the Russian market several of their models, the assembly of which began in Russia. For example, Geely stopped selling the imported sedan Emgard: now its analog S50 from the Belarusian car plant Belgee is sold. Skywell brand, which had been selling electric cars and hybrids in Russia since 2022, decided to leave this year. One of the reasons, analysts say, is the increase in the duty on cars with electric motors.

The purpose of increasing the duty is clear: to support domestic manufacturers and promote localization of foreign ones, but the rates are rising too sharply, says another automotive analyst. On the one hand, localization is going on - this year, according to "Avtostat", more than half of the new cars sold in Russia are produced here, he says. On the other hand, the level of localization is very low: Chinese comrades are in no hurry to invest in Russia, and in fact everything is reduced to screwdriver assembly by Russian partners. That is, the Russian car industry is developing slowly, but it is raising prices much faster, the expert concludes.

"Different segments of the market are communicating vessels, and there is no need to be under the illusion that Russian manufacturers will not raise prices in the event of a sharp rise in prices for foreign cars due to the scrappage fee. Everything will go up in price," he says. "AvtoVAZ" under December 30 announced "indexation" from January prices for Lada up to 1.9%, and on average - by 0.5%. A new car in Russia is again becoming a luxury, a significant part of the population can not afford to give about 2 million rubles for a car, he continues. There is a risk that the demand will stand up - and it is not only foreign cars that will suffer. So it would be wise not to go too far with the increase in the scrappage fee, the expert believes.

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Chinese Car Imports To Russia Have Collapsed By Half This Year

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