Shocked Lukashenka Keeps Silent For Whole Week

Will the dictator be screwed again?

The sharp turn of American policy towards Russia horrified not only American allies. Aliaksandr Lukashenka was so shocked by what happened that he kept silent for a whole week. Although usually Lukashenka always has something to say about any issue.

He came to his senses only in the cowshed. Apparently, the familiar atmosphere helped. He complained about the insidious Americans who want to tear China away from Russia and said that the American-Russian alliance is unlikely to benefit him personally.

“The situation is changing. In some places, it will probably benefit us, in others it is unlikely, if Putin and Trump agree that all these foreign companies will return there — first American, and then others — European. It will not be easy to compete in our market.”

About competition, of course, it is the pure truth. The entire success of Belarusian goods on the Russian market was due to the fact that after the departure of Western companies, Belarusian goods had no competitors. Now Belarusian tractors, trucks and refrigerators can hardly withstand competition with Chinese ones. And the legendary Belarusian quality is not designed to compete on two fronts.

But the prospect of competition on the Russian market is the tip of the iceberg. Before Western companies start returning to Russia, the Belarusian economic miracle still has to live. Because the Belarusian economic miracle has borne abundant fruit on the blood of Ukrainians.

While civilian exports to Russia are slowly deflating, military and dual-use products are in stable demand. The head of the State Military Industrial Committee recently boasted that exports through the department set a historical record last year. The world's largest Belarusian microcircuits are not very suitable for smartphones, but are quite suitable for missiles.

But Belarusian prosperity will somehow survive the reduction in military orders in Russia. It lived without this order before. And now it will cope too. Although, of course, it will not be possible to show economic miracles like before.

The real problem in the Russian-American deal is the one that Lukashenka could not afford to share even with cows. Special allied relations do not allow it. Belarusian propaganda is happy about how Trump has screwed his allies. It would be better to worry about how Putin is treating his ally.

During his visit to the cowshed, Lukashenka said that he is aware of American plans because he is “deeply immersed in these issues.” That is, Putin did not inform his ally about the content of the deal. Otherwise, there would be no need to dive into anything in the cowshed. And since he had to dive into it, it means no one told him anything.

And it is precisely this damned uncertainty, and not the return of competition on the Russian market or the reduction of the Russian military order, that is the main reason for Lukashenka to worry. Because, just try to divide Ukraine. And Lukashenka's sovereign guarantees don't even need to be divided. Lukashenka has exchanged all his guarantees for a bowl of lentil soup. The soup has been eaten and there is nowhere to get new guarantees.

Participation in the negotiations on Ukraine should have provided new guarantees. It was not for nothing that Lukashenka was pushing for them with such persistence. But it seems that no one is even going to invite NATO to the negotiations on Ukraine. So the Belarusian authorities do not even mention their participation. And if Ukraine receives any guarantees, then Lukashenka risks being left alone with Putin. And if Putin again needs Belarusian territory so as not to attack Vilnius or Warsaw the way he did not attack Kyiv, then no one will ask Lukashenka, of course.

Andrei Branisheuski, planbmedia.io

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