Lukashenka Is Weakest Link

Assad is keeping honest.

The Politico magazine has included the overthrow of Lukashenka in the list of fifteen black swans that may arrive this year. And the point is not how many swans the magazine warned about a year ago have flown in. The point is that Lukashenka's weakness is visible even from very far away. In the Axis of the Offended, which Putin has built around himself, Lukashenka is now the weakest link.

‘The people of Belarus could gain their freedom by taking advantage of Putin's weakened position and his inability to intervene to save Lukashenka,’ says Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University.

In other words, nothing at all depends on Lukashenka himself anymore. And that's fair enough. Considering how much Lukashenka himself depends on Russia.

Belarusian industry can work only thanks to cheap Russian gas. If gas becomes more expensive, it will be cheaper for Belarusian industry not to work at all. Belarusian exports depend on Russia for almost 90 per cent. Ten per cent of the Belarusian budget is gratuitous aid from Russia. Not counting Russian loans and endless donations for substitution of import in Belarus.

But by the end of last year it suddenly became clear that Russian opportunities are not as limitless as they seemed before. Russian officials are increasingly saying that stagflation awaits the Russian economy this year. And Lukashenka has started talking that the new year will not be easy.

‘This year will be difficult also because our friends and neighbours with whom we trade have a difficult situation. You can see that. If it was okay with them, it would be very good with us. Therefore, the new year will not be easy. It will be tough,’ he said on Tuesday.

One can see how suddenly difficult the situation of a country that is used to living on full Russian support can become by looking at Transnistria, which is freezing without Russian gas. Belarus has not yet reached such a degree of integration with Russia. However, it has already moved far along this path.

Far enough to make Russia the only guarantor of Lukashenka's personal stability. And this is not the most reliable guarantee. Stability, which has no one to rely on but Russia, is not just fatal. It can become suddenly fatal.

Assad is keeping us honest. Until last December, he was the weakest link. So he knows exactly what happens when you really got to everyone. When even your own supporters have nothing to offer you but an endless struggle for your personal stability.

Lukashenka is also, in fact, aware of it. That is why he even publicly has no illusions about the invincibility of the Belarusian army, nor about how this army will defend him.

And no matter how much you portray stability on TV, everyone still sees that you are the weakest link.

Andrei Branisheuski, planbmedia.io

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