Economy Alarms Lukashenka

Trade with Russia raises major concerns.

Moscow’s trap didn’t work. The Telegram channel "Nik and Mike" reported on the fruitless three-day visit of Aliaksandr Lukashenka to Moscow.

Indeed, as UDF writes, on Tuesday, March 18, Aliaksandr Lukashenka summoned newly appointed Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn. During their meeting, the Belarusian leader briefly summarized the results of his trip to Moscow. According to Lukashenka, he managed to reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin on the supply of cheap Russian oil to Belarusian refineries. The only thing left is to finalize the details with Igor Sechin, the head of Rosneft.

"Therefore, these issues simply need to be worked out. Develop a pricing formula, and so on," Lukashenka instructed the government.

While the oil issue seems to be moving forward, foreign trade with Russia remains a significant concern. Lukashenka admitted that "exports are lower than last year," which is "a very serious warning sign."

These concerns are not unfounded. As the business publication Belarusians and the Market reports, since the beginning of 2025, "the Belarusian economy has entered a slippery path leading to stagnation. GDP growth has been slowing for the second consecutive month, increasingly diverging from the government’s plans. Financial stability is also disappointing, as inflation is surpassing economic growth expectations."

"The most serious concern is our engineering industry. You know the reasons—including the situation in the Russian Federation and high interest rates," Turchyn told journalists after meeting with Lukashenka.

However, statistics show that even with declining production volumes, selling all output remains a challenge. Industrial stockpiles have grown to 10.4 billion rubles in just two months.

In this situation, it is unclear what could serve as the driving force for Belarus's slowing economy. Perhaps the government will receive help from the National Bank, now led by former Prime Minister Raman Halouchenka, who may approve the launch of the printing press. Businesses will get money, and citizens will face double-digit inflation—just like during the financial experiments of banker-construction specialist Pyotr Prakapovich.

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