'Trump’s Remarks On Zaporizhzhia NPP Were Not Random'

The political scientist summed up the main results of the "phone diplomacy" of the US President.

US President Donald Trump announced fantastic conversations with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian ruler Putin.

If we discard the style inherent in the President of the United States, what remains in the dry after these negotiations? Charter97.org spoke about this with the famous Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies:

— In the dry balance, we see a preliminary agreement on a partial truce for energy infrastructure facilities. However, according to the American version (and Ukraine supports this), it should be about stopping strikes on the entire infrastructure.

Actually, the main dry residue is the continuation of negotiations on a ceasefire. There were no other significant results of this conversation and, apparently, there were much more of those on which the parties did not agree.

Trump mentioned the topic of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, but the Russian side did not confirm this. The discrepancies between the Russian and American versions of the content of the conversation show that there were many proposals and claims of Putin, to which the American side did not respond. But, apparently, Trump's key idea — to quickly agree on a complete ceasefire — also did not receive confirmation from Putin.

Both parties agreed to continue negotiations, which is the main result of the agreements. In fact, this conversation showed the differences between the interests of Trump and Putin.

Trump wants a quick peace through a ceasefire, and Putin wants to achieve the surrender of Ukraine, so he is interested in continuing the war or in forcing Ukraine to at least partial surrender, recognizing his demands through Trump's pressure. Putin has not achieved this goal, but he continues his efforts.

— Yesterday, in a conversation between Zelensky and Trump, the Zaporizhzhia NPP appeared. Is this Trump's idea? Or some move from Putin's side?

— Putin is hardly interested in giving anything away, on the contrary, he wants to legalize what he has seized in Ukraine. It is not enough for him just to cease fire, the fact that the occupied territories will remain under the control of the Russian Federation.

He wants legalization, so that Ukraine agrees to recognize the Russian status over the occupied and annexed territories. To which Ukraine, of course, does not agree. This was stated by President Zelensky and other representatives of the Ukrainian state. Here one of the main contradictions in the negotiation process.

The topic of Zaporizhzhia NPP has been discussed for a long time, at least since last year, when they began to discuss the status of Zaporizhzhia NPP, energy and nuclear safety issues both publicly and behind closed doors. Ukraine raised these questions back in 2022. But on the Zaporizhzhia NPP, according to various sources, negotiations, including through the IAEA, began last year. There was no official confirmation of such consultations, but there are a lot of rumors.

Apparently, trump’s remarks on Zaporizhzhia NPP were not random. One of the Ukrainian deputies promoted the idea of joint use of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the United States. Allegedly, he proposed to both Trump and Elon Musk through intermediaries that the Zaporizhzhia NPP (the largest nuclear power plant in Europe) become such an energy hub for cryptocurrency mining, as well as for artificial intelligence.

Perhaps this idea interested Trump, his entourage. Trump, who is very fond of such extravagant business projects, is probably interested in this, since the topic of the Zaporizhzhia NPP in his statements sounds in the context of obtaining US rights.

Trump apparently proposes the following scheme: to help return the Zaporizhzhia NPP, but then the United States should receive ownership rights (it is unclear whether in full or in part). By itself, this deal (as with rare earth metals) looks very ambiguous. Here again, Trump's predatory instinct manifests itself. He does not just want to negotiate peace, he also wants to make money on it, get additional assets.

I would not be surprised if the rights to the Zaporizhzhia NPP can be considered as part of Ukraine's non-existent debt to the United States. This is what Trump is imposing on public opinion.

I'm still skeptical about this deal. First, I highly doubt that Putin will give up the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Secondly, this deal needs to be formalized somehow. How can they do it? It is still difficult to say, but it is obvious that Trump has an interest in this asset. He sees both Greenland and Canada as a potential asset.

Unfortunately, the history of the Zaporizhzhia NPP clearly shows the ambivalence of Trump's intentions towards Ukraine.

On the one hand, he seems to want to help end the war, which in itself is very important for us. On the other hand, he clearly wants to profit in Ukraine, which now depends on the United States. Trump wants to use this dependence to get some of the Ukrainian resources.

— Is there a chance for these negotiations to reach any concrete results?

— There are chances, but they are still very uncertain. The fact is that Putin clearly wants to preserve the negotiating perspective with Trump, to negotiate with him. They have different motives. Trump wants to negotiate with Putin, but it is Putin's motivation that is important for us in this case.

In order to reach some more significant, broad agreement with Trump, Putin needs to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.

And here is the dilemma for Putin: he wants to finish off Ukraine (or at least achieve surrender), and for this it is necessary to continue the war, and at the same time it is very important for him to negotiate with Trump.

A compromise is possible. I do not exclude that with certain reservations, additional requirements that he puts forward, Putin can agree to a ceasefire (especially for 30 days), while he retains the possibility of pressure on Ukraine through the negotiation process, Trump.

Another thing is that the conditions that he puts forward, in particular the termination of foreign military assistance for Ukraine, are unacceptable. Ukraine will not agree to this, as will at least European partners. It's harder to say about Trump here.

I think that the decisive factor that will influence the possibility of a more or less sustainable ceasefire is the military situation. If Russian troops continue their offensive, the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement will decrease.

If the military situation stabilizes, it will be possible to stop the offensive actions of Russian troops not only on the border of the Sumy and Kursk regions, but also in the East of Ukraine, then the likelihood of signing a ceasefire agreement will be higher.

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