What Lukashenka Actually Signed In Moscow

Formal conditions have been created for the participation of the Belarusian army in the war.

On December 6, 2024, Lukashenka and Putin signed the Security Concept of the "Union State" and the Treaty on Security Guarantees within its framework. The dictators called the signing of these documents as evidence of an unprecedented level of mutual trust and partnership reached between Minsk and Moscow. The Security Guarantees Agreement came into effect on March 13 this year.

The agreements aim to counter "external pressure and threats from the West, ensuring the peaceful development of both countries," Our Opinion writes.

The security concept contains an assessment of the international situation and measures to counter threats emanating from the West and NATO. The document raises a number of concerns: the U.S. and its allies perceive the countries of the "Union State" as adversaries, expanding NATO eastward and into the Arctic, increasing military forces, and lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. It is also emphasized that NATO is preparing for operations in space and against critical information infrastructure, which increases the risks of military clashes.

Further, the alleged crisis in Ukraine and tensions in the South Caucasus, Baltic and Black Sea regions are being used by the West to justify the growth of military spending and the strengthening of military infrastructure.

The special services of Western countries are accused of inciting conflicts, seeking to change the constitutional order, weaken the "union state" and undermine the historical ties of the peoples of the region, which leads to long-term instability in Eurasia.

According to the Concept, the main task of the United States and NATO is to split the states of Eurasia, suppress integration processes in the post-Soviet space and inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. It provides for the joint implementation by Minsk and Moscow of organizational, military, economic and technical measures to ensure the security of the "Union State".

The Security Guarantees Agreement establishes the unity of the defence space and the mutual obligation of support in the event of threats to the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and constitutional order of the parties. The threat of aggression is interpreted broadly, including any actions of third states, terrorist groups and extremist organizations that pose a risk to the territorial integrity and borders of the "Union State". If there is a threat of aggression, it is allowed to use military force even before the act of attack.

The treaty provides for the deployment of military and other facilities, Russian military formations on the territory of Belarus (Article 5), which actually implies the creation of Russian military bases. A specific list of objects is not specified in the contract, but Russian legislation lists polygons, airfields, bases, arsenals, communication centers, command posts, etc. They also imply the creation of forbidden and other zones around them with special conditions for land use. For example, Russian joint military bases in the self-proclaimed South Ossetia and Kyrgyzstan have the status of military facilities.

The Agreement separately provides that in the event of sanctions by third states, the parties may request mutual support and apply joint countermeasures.

Some provisions of the agreement with Belarus (Article 2) are similar to the provisions of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Russia and the DPRK (Article 3), which entered into force on December 4, 2024. According to it, in the event of a threat of aggression, consultations should be initiated immediately to coordinate the response. In the event of an armed attack, both parties undertake to render each other prompt military and other assistance by all available means.

After the treaty with the DPRK entered into force, North Korean units were already sent to support Russian troops in the Kursk region to participate in the war against Ukraine. Given that hostilities are already underway on the territory of Russia and the Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia in 2022, the treaty creates formal conditions for the possible direct participation of the Belarusian army in Russia's war against Ukraine.

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