Oleksandr Khara: Conflict Is Inevitable

Trump will face Ukraine's principled stand and Russia's refusals.

Russian representatives reported that the statement following the talks with the US in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) was not adopted. What could have happened? Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, director of the Center for Defense Strategies Oleksandr Khara:

— Russia accused the Ukrainian side of allegedly being against the publication of the already agreed text. We understand perfectly well that the Russians always lie, so there is no point in believing Peskov, Lavrov or anyone else.

I cannot imagine what reason the Ukrainian side could have for blocking such a decision. Since nothing fundamental in the strategic perspective should have been agreed upon. These are technical negotiations on how the temporary ceasefire will be implemented.

— Some media outlets wrote that one of Russia's demands could be control over 4 regions of Ukraine, which are included in the Russian Constitution. How true is this?

— You know, there is a Ukrainian proverb: “A fool is rich in thought.” Putin said this when he commented on the American proposal for a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire. He started bleating something about the causes of the conflict, that Ukraine should not mobilize military personnel, and so on.

If the Americans had agreed with their approach and started talking about the positions that are diametrically opposed between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, then there would have been no ceasefire, even temporary and incomplete, in principle.

Naturally, they told the Americans something during these negotiations, but the Americans are interested in certain progress at least within the framework of this temporary ceasefire. I think it is unlikely that they would have made any concessions to the Russian side in this strategically important context.

— It is clear that these negotiations are reaching a dead end. Could there be some kind of tough reaction from the US? If not in practical terms, then in verbal terms — some kind of statement about the breakdown of negotiations by Russia?

— Let's divide the negotiations on a temporary ceasefire, then negotiations on making this temporary ceasefire long-term, and then, accordingly, negotiations on a peace agreement.

If we are talking about the current stage, then compromises are possible on both sides. If we are talking about a long-term ceasefire, then if it does not touch on the causes of the conflict, does not touch on guarantees of Ukraine's security, then it will be impossible.

I am not even talking about a peace agreement. It will never happen as long as there is a Fuhrer of the Russian world, as long as there are occupied Ukrainian territories, and illegally taken Ukrainian children are not returned.

A crisis in relations between Ukraine and the US is inevitable, because the Americans will not be able to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept conditions that are unacceptable to us.

I do not see any room for compromise in strategic issues, in tactical ones we have already compromised. In fact, we initially offered the Americans a temporary ceasefire. Not a full-fledged one, but in some areas. The Americans convinced us that this ceasefire should be unconditional and comprehensive: in the air, on the ground and at sea.

The Russians refused this. They began to set conditions. They are talking about a ceasefire exclusively on terms favorable to Russia: not to strike Russian oil refineries and also some new situation in the Black Sea.

We made a lot of compromises, and Russia did nothing. But Trump swallowed it, he wants at least some success, or the appearance of it. After some time, he will face the unwillingness of the Russians to go further, or the unwillingness of Ukraine to agree to geopolitical suicide, the loss of territory and the renunciation of its sovereignty.

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