What's Behind Lukashenko's Call To "drill And Drill"

The regime is fighting for survival.

Lukashenko does not set the task of creating effective economic mechanisms in the country. Political expediency is the main thing for him when addressing economic issues. The state policy in the sphere of economy is subordinated to the task of survival of the regime.

And all economic processes are focused on the solution of this very problem.

On July 22, Alexander Lukashenko held a meeting on hydrocarbon production. The main conclusion of the meeting was a simple slogan: "Drill and drill!" That is, to search for and produce more oil, and we will be happy. In fact, it can be considered a kind of quintessence of economic views and approaches to the development of the economy of the ruler of Belarus.

Lukashenko's critics constantly reproach him that many of his decisions hamper the economic development of the country. But the problem is that he does not set himself the task of creating effective economic mechanisms. In any case, as the main one. Economic efficiency, stimulation of economic development are far from Lukashenko's first priority. The main thing for him is political expediency. And all economic processes are oriented to this very task; he considers them from the point of view of political effect.

Lukashenko approaches the issue of market reforms in the same way. After all, the market creates subjects beyond the control of the state, people economically independent of it. And this is a threat to the regime. He is very afraid of the emergence of centers of economic power (oligarchs) and, consequently, of political influence. That is why serious business in Belarus develops only with the permission of the authorities, under the "roof" of state structures. The decisive role in commercial success is played not by entrepreneurship and diligence, but by access to high offices.

By creating a paternalistic economic model, Lukashenko has ensured the dependence of the majority of the population on the state.

It is worth paying attention to the topics discussed at Lukashenko's recent meetings. These are the extraction of hydrocarbons, the harvesting campaign, trips to the regions to inspect agricultural enterprises.

All this is the economy of the industrial era. Its main wealth is raw materials. It is no coincidence that potash fertilizers and oil products remain the most important export goods of Belarus. Cheap Russian energy resources have become important components of the Belarusian social model. It is a kind of rent economy, when the main income is formed at the expense of the use of natural rent - both its own and Russian.

Lukashenko exclaimed more than once with a secret hope: it cannot be that there is no oil and gas in our subsoil, they say, look for better. The same call was made at the last meeting.

The High Technology Park (HTP) is rather an exception to the rule. Lukashenko has even regretted authorizing its creation, as HTP employees made up a significant part of the protesters during the 2020 protests.

Lukashenko's ideal scenario would be an economic system dominated by the public sector, which he manually manages. In this case, the economic efficiency of state enterprises is not so important. The main thing is that everyone works (that's why they actively attract "slackers"), all fields are sown, everything "moves". And there is a need for constant pressure on the leadership from above, a constant demand for "iron discipline".

The overwhelming majority of projects implemented by the state turned out to be unprofitable: wood processing, BNBK Corporation, cement plants, enterprises "Sukno" and "Kamvol" and others.

In addition, the administrative system dominated by the public sector gives the opportunity to implement economic projects for the sake of political prestige of the state and its leader. This applies to space projects, nuclear power plants, talks about building airplanes...

In the modern world, countries compete not by raw materials but by technologies, but also by the quality of legal systems, the degree of guarantees of protection of property and investments. But in Belarus there are simply no guarantees of property, personal inviolability, there is no rule of law, no independent court. At any moment the business can be taken away from the owner, arrested, imprisoned.

In addition, one of the important problems of doing business in Belarus is the lack of uniform norms of functioning of the entire economy. Different regions, industries and even individual companies have their own exclusive rules. There is the High Technology Park, the industrial park "Big Stone", free economic zones, and in each case we have a different legal regime. And there are also privileges for leading state enterprises, for agricultural organizations, for Orsha and Shklou districts, etc. This means that manual management has been brought to its logical end, to a kind of feudal fragmentation in the economic and legal sense.

In such unfavorable conditions, the prospects for economic development look bleak. And even major Russian aid is not saving the country. And the population, in search of better earnings, is emigrating en masse.

Valery Karbalevich, "Radio Svaboda".

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