Trump's New Ultimatum Collapsed The Russian Ruble Exchange Rate

To lows since April.

The ruble continues to depreciate sharply on the Moscow Exchange and forex for the second day in a row after tough statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded that the Kremlin stop the war within 10-12 days and otherwise threatened to deprive Russia of its last oil buyers, The Moscow Times wrote.

The yuan exchange rate on Tuesday climbed to 11.51 rubles, the highest since early April, while the dollar and euro on the stock market rewrote highs since early May at 82.61 rubles and 95.37 rubles, respectively.

The ruble lost 4 percent against the Chinese currency, 3.7 percent against the U.S. currency and more than 2 percent against the European currency in less than two days of trading, marking the strongest depreciation since the beginning of 2025.

The ruble's weakening is a "worrying signal" that was "a direct consequence of tough statements from Washington," analysts at IFC Solid wrote. Trump confirmed the threat to impose duties up to 100% against buyers of Russian oil, the number of which after the invasion of Ukraine narrowed to a narrow circle of Asian countries.

More than 80% of all oil exports from Russia now go to China and India. And oil refineries of the latter are already beginning to think about alternatives to "toxic" Russian barrels, sources in the market told Reuters.

In addition, the ruble is pressured by the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank and the ban on gasoline exports, which was introduced the day before, which will deprive the market of an additional inflow of foreign currency, analysts wrote "Tsifra Broker". Already by the end of August, the dollar rate may jump to 90 rubles, does not exclude investment banker Evgeny Kogan.

The chief economist of "T-Investments" Sofia Donets predicts the growth of the American currency to almost 100 rubles at the end of the year. The devaluation is urgently needed by the budget, whose deficit as of mid-July exceeded 4 trillion rubles instead of the 1.2 trillion initially planned for the whole year.

"The Russian currency is under pressure from a combination of factors - the increased risks of sanctions, the lowered key rate and the reduced for the time being sales of currency by exporters after the end of the tax period," lists Bank Saint Petersburg analyst Viktor Grigoriev.

"In the perspective until the end of the year, the weakening of the ruble may continue," warns "Tsifra Broker": foreign currency earnings of oil and gas exporters are decreasing, and with it - and sales of currency on the exchange. At the same time, the demand for foreign currency will grow if consumers start actively buying gadgets and equipment on credit again due to lower interest rates.

Further weakening of the ruble may lead to a slight increase in inflation in the fall, experts point out, and this, in turn, may call into question further reduction of the Central Bank's rate.

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