NYT: Putin Has Changed Tactics

Possible scenarios of further development of events were voiced.

In late July, Russian President Vladimir Putin was close to losing the support of U.S. President Donald Trump, the only Western leader who could conceivably help him implement his plan for Ukraine and disrupt European security, The New York Times reported.

Trump tired of negotiations and issued ultimatums

After months of fruitless attempts to persuade Putin to end the war, Trump grew tired of constant calls and negotiations, began issuing ultimatums and even struck up a relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky despite a White House conflict earlier this year, according to the publication.

"It wasn't clear whether Trump would be able or willing to follow through on his threats to impose stiff tariffs against countries that buy Russian oil.... But the deadline Trump gave Putin to end the war was fast approaching," the NYT noted.

Putin changes tactics and opens talks on territories

In response, Putin changed tactics and, in a meeting with Trump's special envoy Steve Whitkoff, gave the impression that Russia was willing to discuss territorial arrangements. "We will get some things back and some things will be swapped. There will be an exchange of territories for the benefit of both sides," the publication quoted Trump as saying after the talks.

According to Sam Green, a professor of Russian politics at King's College London, "It's been a very good week for Putin.... He has moved the process in a direction that is more or less entirely in his interests."

Possible scenarios for further development

NYT notes that one scenario involves a favorable deal between Putin and Trump, which the U.S. could impose on Ukraine, or Zelensky's refusal to accept it - at the risk of losing American support. The other option is to continue the current course of war for another 12 to 18 months.

"If it is possible to get Trump to recognize Russian claims to the lion's share of the captured territories ... it will drive a wedge between the US and Europe in the long term," Green believes.

Putin's strategic goals and threats to Ukraine

An analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations Stephan Meister notes: "For Putin, it's actually about bigger goals ... It forms a different willingness to bear the costs." In his opinion, it would be a disaster for Ukraine if Zelensky does not participate in the crucial negotiations.

Expert warns of the risks of concessions to the Kremlin

Political expert Dmitry Snegirev has expressed a critical attitude to Russia's territorial "wants". According to him, control over the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions could become a key obstacle in any negotiations.

He also pointed out that full control over the Donetsk region is likely to be on the agenda.

Snegirev emphasized that this could become the main instrument of pressure on Ukraine, including from the United States. Ukraine currently controls about 33 percent of the territory of Donetsk Region, which includes most of the region's industrial potential and natural resources.

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