The World Is Preparing For A Record Oversupply Of Oil

Black gold prices reacted.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oil surplus in 2026, as growth in demand for the commodity will slow, while production and supply of "black gold" to the market, on the contrary, will increase, according to Bloomberg.

Experts expect oil consumption to grow by 680,000 bpd in 2025, the lowest since 2019, due to lower-than-expected oil demand in China, India and Brazil. At the same time, global oil inventories hit a nearly four-year high in June.

According to the report, demand for crude will grow by 700 thousand bpd next year. The IEA expects oil demand to stop growing by 2030 as countries switch to electric cars.

At the same time, there could be more additional barrels on the market. The agency raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth in 2026 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1 million barrels a day. It is expected that the US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil will add the most barrels to the market.

At the same time, it is not clear whether OPEC+ countries will increase production again. As is known, the cartel has announced an increase in oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day since April 2025.

"OPEC+ has made it clear that its next move is yet to be determined and could be either a further increase, a pause, or even a reversal of recent production increases," the report said.

The agency's experts expect oil inventories to build at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than even the average build-up during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

In contrast to the IEA's consumer-optimistic forecast, OPEC experts predict oil demand will increase by 1.38 million bpd in 2026.

By the IEA's forecast, oil prices continued to fall on August 13. As of 2:03 p.m. Kiev time, WTI crude futures fell 51 cents to $62.66 a barrel. The cost of the European oil benchmark Brent fell by 41 cents to $65.71 per barrel.

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