ISW: Russia Will Try To Disrupt The Focus Of Trump's Meeting With Putin

This is evidenced by the composition of the Russian delegation.

The Kremlin is likely to use today's summit in Alaska to try to divert U.S. attention away from peace talks with Ukraine and onto U.S.-Russian relations. In this way, Putin and the Russian delegation will push the Trump administration to push Moscow's much-needed economic relations.

This is the prediction made by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War in their new report.

The ISW said the participation in the Russian delegation of Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev indicates that Russia is likely to try to shift the summit's focus from Russia's war against Ukraine to potential bilateral economic agreements with the United States. Neither Siluanov nor Dmitriev attended the previous Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul in May or June 2025. However, Dmitriev did attend the US-Russia talks in Istanbul in February 2025. ISW experts recall that the Kremlin has often used Dmitriev and his business experience to portray Russia as a supposedly attractive economic partner for the United States. On the eve of the U.S. summit, Dmitriev was also one of those shaping Russian narratives, claiming that Alaska is a "historical part of Russia" and trying to portray Russia as a world power equal to the United States ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting. The Kremlin also relies on Siluanov in hopes of reducing the negative impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy and trying to convince the West to lift sanctions against Russia because of their alleged ineffectiveness (which does not correspond to reality, ISW notes). Therefore, the presence of Dmitriev and Siluanov at the Alaska summit is likely indicative of Russia's attempt to present the summit as a venue for a potential business deal.

Other Russian officials have also de facto confirmed that the Kremlin will try to use the Alaska summit to launch economic negotiations with the United States. Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said on August 14 that, in addition to the topic of Ukraine, Trump and Putin would discuss bilateral cooperation "in the trade and economic sphere," where there is supposedly "huge" and "untapped" potential. First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee Alexei Chepa said Putin and Trump may discuss sanctions and other economic issues. Chepa's colleague Svetlana Zhurova, also deputy head of the Duma's foreign affairs committee, said that "Russia and the United States will in any case conclude an economic agreement" after the Alaska summit. ISW sees these statements as part of a concerted effort by Russia to use the Alaska summit to secure needed economic aid from the United States. Experts at the Institute for the Study of War continue to assess that any U.S. moves toward Russia's proposed economic agreements in the absence of simultaneous concessions by Moscow in Ukraine would only weaken the important economic leverage the United States now has over Russia.

The factor of a severely weakened Russian economy that Putin will "bring" to Alaska now gives the Trump administration significant leverage during the summit, ISW notes. On August 13, Bloomberg reported that Western sanctions and putting Russia's economy on a war footing are seriously hurting it, while Putin's attempts to stabilize the economy are failing as Russian oil revenues continue to fall. Falling oil prices, combined with harsh Western sanctions and declining energy revenues, have put a serious strain on Russia's already troubled federal budget. It is now facing its highest budget deficit in 30 years, Bloomberg reported.

An unnamed official told the agency that Putin has repeatedly demanded sanctions relief as part of any agreement to be negotiated on Alaska. ISW estimates that this indicates that Putin is concerned about the state of the Russian economy and is eager to ease the burden imposed by Western countries. Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War also reported that there is growing concern among Russian bankers about the growing number of bad loans in Russia. This fact undermines Putin's constant claims that neither the war in Ukraine nor Western sanctions are hurting the Russian economy.

The financial strain on the Russian economy undermines the Kremlin's ability to continue the war in the long term, depleting reserves and exposing the fragility of the Russian economy. Trump has previously threatened secondary sanctions and new tariffs on countries that still continue to import Russian oil. ISW estimates that this would likely have an even greater impact on the Russian economy, undermining the revenues the Kremlin is using for the war against Ukraine. Thus, Russia is likely setting the stage to try to use the Alaska summit to secure economic relief, the Institute for the Study of War summarizes.

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