"Trump's Call Could Influence Lukashenko"

The American diplomat calls for caution in the dialog with the Belarusian dictator.

Why did US President Donald Trump call Lukashenko? This is the question Charter97.org asked to Daniel Fried, ex-coordinator of the US State Department's sanctions policy, former ambassador to Poland, expert of the Atlantic Council think tank.

- The minuses of such a phone call are obvious: it encourages Lukashenko, brings him out of isolation, the Belarusian dictator can boast about it. The reason for a phone conversation can only be something substantial, for example - the release of political prisoners. If it becomes possible, I will support contact with Lukashenko within certain conditions. I said "within certain conditions" because we have already seen this tendency - there is always a danger that Lukashenko will arrest dissidents or just ordinary Belarusians on false charges and keep them, in fact, as hostages, hoping to get something from the Western country in exchange for their release. Thus, Lukashenko's concessions carry a moral hazard, as it encourages him to arrest more people and seek more concessions in exchange for release.

But I am still sympathetic to any effort to free people from prison. I understand the moral hazard argument, but if you manage to get someone out of prison, that's a person whose life you've changed for the better, and that's worth something.

Many years ago, I spoke with the current Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, and he made a wise observation: no matter what we tried to do with Lukashenko, there were always problems, and the results were very modest. If you put pressure on him, he arrests more people. If you try to negotiate with him about releasing people, he just appropriates your concessions, releases people, and then arrests more. It is extremely unpleasant to work with him.

The Belarusian regime has also been involved in aggressive actions against Poland by smuggling migrants across the border, so the Poles decided to take a tough stance. I believe that US contacts regarding Lukashenko should be well coordinated with at least the Poles and Lithuanians, and also hopefully with the EU as a whole, as well as key players.

So, my short answer is: yes, I think Trump's call may have some positive consequences, but I would like to give you a more complete answer about all the dangers and risks associated with Lukashenko, as well as possible reasons.

- After this call, the President of the United States publicly called the illegitimate Belarusian dictator "highly respected." Why?

- Highly respected for whom? I doubt he is highly respected even by Vladimir Putin, so I am skeptical. The only thing that can be said in defense of this social media post is that perhaps it will lead to something tangible, such as the release of political prisoners. Calling Lukashenko "highly respected" is not substantively justified, but politics is not always pure art. If one can achieve a decent result by flattering Lukashenka, one can find justifications for such a position.

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