Where's The Optimism Coming From?

5.08.2025, 9:40
9,166

Economics vs. forecasts of Belarusian officials.

The Ministry of Economy of Belarus has again pleased with optimism. However, this time it's not its own. On Monday, the ministry published the data of the July survey of the heads of enterprises. According to this survey, the heads of enterprises look forward to the future with great hope. However, the Belarusian economy does not share this optimism for some reason. And even Alexander Lukashenko has already begun to doubt, writes planbmedia.io.

The heads of 70 percent of surveyed enterprises informed the Ministry of Economy about the preservation or increase in demand for their products. At the same time, 90 percent expect it to be no worse in the future.

"The forecast assessment of changes in the overall economic situation remains positive. The majority of managers forecast an increase or preservation of demand for their products," the ministry said.

The ministry said that the utilization rate remains at 69 percent. At the same time, on average, the enterprises are provided with orders for three months in advance.

But by some surprising coincidence, the constantly growing demand for Belarusian goods is not accompanied by the growth of Belarusian exports. That is, apparently, they ask, but do not buy.

According to the National Statistics Committee, exports of Belarusian goods fell by 3.7% in six months. Imports increased by 3.3. The negative balance of goods increased by 83 percent compared to last year.

According to Alexander Lukashenko, over the past three years, Belarus has lost $2 billion in fuel exports, $1 billion in the chemical industry, the same amount in the long-suffering woodworking industry and a quarter of a billion in exports of Belarusian metals.

It's true that sales of Belarusian machine-building products increased by three billion, but these happy times are over. According to Lukashenko, exports of Belarusian machine-building fell by 320 million dollars in five months. That is, neither the supplies of equipment for the war, nor the strengthening of the Russian ruble, thanks to which the price of Belarusian goods in dollars is now 20% more expensive than last year, helped.

Not even the special allied relations, thanks to which Belarusian factories can parasitize on Russian state orders, help.

"If the market collapses, if Russian manufacturers are already going idle and reducing their staffs, for example, Rostselmash, the motor plant in Yaroslavl, we will not solve our problems with exports to Russia at the expense of state support alone," Lukashenko complained to his ambassadors last week.

That's why the Minister of Industry expects exports of Belarusian factories to fall by 7-8% this year. And this is still a very optimistic forecast.

Because Belarusian factories have no alternatives to the Russian market. Russia's share in the Belarusian export is already 65 percent. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry accounts for 90% of sales to Russia, the Ministry of Construction and Architecture - 80%, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Food - 70.

It's not getting any better. For six months exports to non-CIS countries fell by 13.5 percent. Separately, in June it collapsed by 23 percent. At the same time, imports grew by twenty. The foreign trade deficit with the countries of the far arc only for June amounted to almost 860 million dollars.

Belarusian authorities like to brag about their successes in the African market. MTZ sold two thousand tractors in Zimbabwe. But even Lukashenko admitted last week that "for our enterprises this is a miser".

In general, if we look at the Belarusian economy with a view armed with government optimism, the Belarusian economy is doing great. However, empirical data contradict this optimism. But the main thing in the government optimism is not what is answered, but who asks.

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Where's The Optimism Coming From?

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