Where Lukashenko Went From Valaam

5.08.2025, 16:04
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A test of successful negotiation.

On the evening of August 3, Alexander Lukashenko returned to Belarus after a three-day visit to Russia.

This time Vladimir Putin invited his "little brother" to visit Valaam, where, having prayed beforehand, the politicians, sitting on a bench, in the presence of the press, had a long reflection on geopolitical topics. They discussed the war in Ukraine, relations with the United States, Western sanctions, and taught Trump how to negotiate with Russia. And, of course, they recalled the Russian miracle weapon "Oreshnik", the production of which, according to Putin, has already been put on stream, writes udf.by.

And the second and third day the Belarusian and Russian rulers devoted to discussing bilateral issues in the "closed format".

According to political observer Valery Karbalevich, it is most likely that Putin and Lukashenko discussed the final format of the September exercise "West-2025".

"It follows from the statements of the Belarusian and Russian generals that the format varied depending on the changes in the international situation. Now there is a trend for escalation of the conflict between Russia and Belarus with the West. And such exercises are a convenient tool of blackmail and pressure on neighbors, which can be manipulated," said the analyst.

The second topic of the closed conversation could be the discussion of economic problems.

"Belarusian officials have publicly voiced Minsk's requests to Moscow. We are talking about new loans: to refinance old debts, to finance new import substitution projects and, most tellingly, to finance the budget of Belarus. That is, the Belarusian government cannot cope with the budget and does not hesitate to ask "big brother" for money. Meanwhile, Russia itself is expected to have a huge budget deficit this year," says Karbalevich.

His words are confirmed by Russian economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev. According to him, the economic crisis is covering not only Belarus, but also Russia.

"What Belarus is expecting in the near future, namely, an increase in trade deficit, devaluation of the Belarusian ruble and so on - all this will happen in Russia with a lag of several months, because they are interdependent systems," the expert believes.

And, according to Shiryaev, if earlier Moscow was always ready to help Alexander Lukashenko with loans, "which he never gave back," now, in the conditions of war with Ukraine, Putin may demand real political concessions from Lukashenko for such support.

"The Kremlin will keep Belarus in its clawed paws until the last. And this death grip will bring the economy of Belarus to a more deplorable state, I'm afraid, than in Russia, because there will be no one to help Lukashenko," said Shiryaev.

Nothing is known about the specific results of Lukashenko's visit to Valaam. Nor is it known where the Belarusian ruler flew from Russia. A year ago, after a meeting with Putin, he went not to Minsk, but to his small homeland - to the residence "Alexandria" in Shklov district. Lukashenko calls it his "place of strength," where he comes to his senses after a hard day's work.

If he went to "Alexandria" again this year, it could be a signal that the negotiations with Putin were extremely difficult and that the "younger brother" did not get anything from the "elder" in terms of financial support.

This means that Lukashenko will again have to urgently deal with clearing the sanctions rubble in the western direction. In order to do so, he needs to remove migrants from the EU border, tone down his bellicose rhetoric towards Brussels, and continue releasing political prisoners.

In any case, the coming months may become extremely interesting in terms of political equilibrium of the 70-year-old Belarusian ruler.

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Where Lukashenko Went From Valaam

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