Negotiating Swings: What's Behind The Scenes

The situation began to develop dynamically.

1. After the initial skepticism when things seemed to be at a standstill and Trump even announced duties for India the situation has started to dynamize. Multilateral negotiations seem to have been going on all along. And the situation is changing, de facto, online.

2. Trump will meet Putin only if there is indeed some breakthrough. At the same time, we must realize that the value of the meeting, as such, is different for Putin and Trump. Putin clearly cares more about it.

3. At the moment, with a high degree of certainty, we can talk about four basic proposals of the US (it seems that they are to some extent coordinated with the EU), although here, too, not everything is still completely clear. What these proposals are:

- stopping hostilities plus or minus along the front line, and the occupied territories are de facto recognized as Russian. The details of such recognition are not yet fully understood. So far we proceed from the "precedent" of occupied Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which the West did not recognize as Soviet), although this is only speculation.

- Ukraine does not join NATO. Not yet clear about mandatory neutral status (it seems the Russians will insist on it).

- Urgent presidential elections immediately after the agreement. It looks like the previous demand to keep Zelensky out of the election is not being raised.

- Russia sanctions are being lifted. This is the least clear issue at the moment, in the sense that the order and depth of the removal is not clear. And most importantly, the logic of the lifting is Dmitriev's proposals, where the U.S. guarantees access to the European market for Russian goods under sanctions, which will be sold under the American flag (conditional joint trading houses) or it will be some other model (it is still unknown). The only thing that is certain is that the parties agree on lifting sanctions

4. We can have no doubt that the Russians will set conditions on language and church (the format is still unclear).

5. At each stage, agreements can break down for a variety of reasons. Therefore, we continue to live in these negotiation swings.

Vadim Denysenko, "Facebook".

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