Russian Rye Harvest Falls To Historic Low

Will Russians be left without bread?

Rye harvest in Russia in 2024 reached a record low in the modern history of observations - only 1.166 million tons. This is reported by Forbes with reference to the data of the expert-analytical center of agribusiness "AB-Center".

According to the general director of the center Alexei Plugov, the indicator has decreased by more than 30% compared to 2023, when the reduction amounted to 21.4%. The forecast for 2025 is even more pessimistic - about 1 million tons are expected to be harvested, which means an additional 16% drop. RUSEED analytical center gives a slightly more optimistic estimate of 1.16-1.17 million tons.

Historical comparison shows catastrophic dynamics: in 1990 the rye harvest was 16.4 million tons - ten times the current figures. The main reasons for the reduction were the reduction of sown areas and the transition of agrarians to more profitable crops.

The fall in harvest volumes has led to a price reaction: as of September 5, wholesale prices for rye reached 13,355 rubles per ton. According to Rosstat data, in July 2025 the price was 12,303 rubles per ton without VAT, showing an increase of 64.6% for the year and 80.6% for two years.

The situation provoked a reaction in the production chain as well. Wholesale prices for rye flour rose to 20,945 rubles per ton, increasing by 16% over the year. Average retail prices for rye bread reached 96.2 rubles per kilogram, which is 15% higher than last year's figures.

The area under rye is also showing a downward trend - in 2025 it decreased by 28.7% to 450.9 thousand hectares. Although the current yield is higher than last year (25.7 c/ha against 21 c/ha), it is not enough to compensate for the reduction in crops, states Alexei Plugov.

The production of rye flour, according to his data, has decreased by 29.4% over the past ten years. In January-July 2025, 250.6 thousand tons were produced, which is 13% less than in the same period last year. Plugov predicts a further 10-15% rise in bread prices next year.

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