Forbes: Ukraine Drives Russia Into Pre-revolutionary Situation Of 1917
15- 13.09.2025, 11:24
- 17,088
History repeats itself.
Ukraine's campaign of strikes on Russia's oil and gas infrastructure not only deprives Russia of the main source of funding for its aggression, but also destabilizes the social and political situation on the Russian home front.
This is similar to the way Russian society destabilized on the eve of the February 1917 Revolution, writes Forbes.
The publication notes that Ukraine tried to hit this vulnerable point of the aggressor back in late 2023. But then the Biden administration, fearing rising global oil prices, effectively vetoed this strategy by Kiev.
In the summer of 2025, Ukraine launched a new campaign of strikes against Russian refineries and oil pipelines. This time, with Washington no longer objecting to such strikes, the campaign has yielded significant results: according to various reports, Russia has lost between 17% and 20% of its oil refining.
This has caused significant fuel shortages and rising fuel prices in Russia's domestic market, increasing social pressure on the Kremlin as ordinary Russians increasingly feel the effects of the war.
"Ukraine's drone strikes on refineries are achieving what sanctions alone have failed to do. Moscow has found ways to adapt to Western sanctions, but so far it has no reliable defense against Ukrainian drones," explained former Ukrainian Defense Ministry advisor Sergei Kuzan.
The authors of the material noted that Russian propaganda cannot ignore the queues at gas stations in many Russian regions, but tries to explain it by the consequences of increased seasonal demand for fuel and unscheduled refinery repairs. Only occasionally recognizing that the causes of these unscheduled repairs are destructive "drone debris" flying freely over the European part of Russia.
And all this is happening against the background of a gradual deterioration of the overall economic situation in Russia. While these attacks on refineries will not end the war by themselves, they are shaping its trajectory.
"Putin often positions himself as the heir to the tsars, who is rebuilding the empire. But he should remember Czar Nikolai II during World War I, when overstretched fronts and internal deficits made unrest at home as dangerous as an enemy abroad," the authors of the article said.
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