It Became Clear What Will Happen To The Dollar Exchange Rate In September
3- 15.09.2025, 8:30
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Currency Forecast.
Last week our previous forecast was fully realized. The dollar, as expected, rose to new values. What exchange rates to expect in September this week, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in our traditional forecast for myfin.by
Dollar is growing in a planned manner
By Thursday, September 11, the U.S. dollar exchange rate on the Belarusian currency market was rising to USD/BYN 3.0974. But by the end of the trading five-day period, the dollar was corrected to USD/BYN 3.0818. In total, the dollar rose by +2.41% during the week at the Belarusian trades, while the decline in the dollar exchange rate to the beginning of the year reduced to -11.28%. Last week's trading volume also amounted to an above-average $81.697 million.
Russian ruble depreciated by -1.86% to RUB/BYN 3.6268 per Br100 on the Belarusian fx market last week. By the beginning of the year, the growth of the ruble decreased to +8.30%. The trading volume for the week is one of the highest in 2025 and amounted to 26,069.810 million Russian rubles.
But the most interesting thing last week, as it often happens due to the early end of trading on the BSE, happened on the financial market in the second half of Friday, September 12. We are now talking about the regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy. Following the results of the meeting, the Russian regulator lowered the key rate by 100 percentage points to 17.00%.
Market expectations were mostly tied to a 200 p.p. rate cut, but the Bank of Russia took a moderate stance with a relatively tough release following the decision. The Central Bank attributed the 1.00% cut to persistently high inflationary expectations coupled with growing lending activity.
This was roughly the picture almost a year ago, when, in anticipation of the first rate cut, corporate credit in Russia began to grow significantly, which became a pro-inflationary factor and pushed back the start of the key rate cut to 2025. Business tried to run ahead of the locomotive this time, but the Bank of Russia at Friday's meeting once again reminded that one should not get ahead of events.
After the meeting, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow interbank market at one point declined to USD/RUB 81.40, by Friday's close it corrected to 83.50.
The key event of the week
This week there will be a similar event. This time across the ocean. On Wednesday, September 17, at 21:00 Moscow time, the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve's FOMC monetary committee ends at 21:00 Moscow time. At 21:30 there will be a press conference of the head of the MS Jerome Powell.
The meeting on September 17 will attract the closest attention of the world financial market. The fact is that this meeting will be held on the eve of the adoption of the next annual budget in the U.S. Congress. We remember that the fiscal year in the States begins on October 1 and this will be the first budget adopted under President Trump and possibly the last under the current Fed chief Jerome Powell.
U.S. President Donald Trump has many complaints about the latter, including the Fed's high interest rate. Whether and to what extent the FOMC will lower rates is the intrigue of the upcoming meeting. We can put it another way - whether the Fed will "bend" to the presidential power or will retain its independence.
This is a very important issue not only for the United States, but also for the entire financial world as one of the factors of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
In view of the above, at the beginning of the current week we can expect some softening of the dollar rate in the Belarusian currency market to USD/BYN 3.045. In the future, the dollar rate may rise slightly again and rise to the current values by the end of the week. The exchange rate of the Russian ruble is also strengthening minimally with a general tendency to weakening.
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