"Rzeczpospolita": Lukashenko Framed China

How much Beijing will lose due to the closure of the Polish-Belarusian border.

Because of the Russian-Belarusian exercise "Zapad", border crossings on Poland's border with Belarus have been closed since September 12: for cars Terespol - Brest, for trucks Kukuryki - Kozlovichi, as well as three railway crossings for freight traffic: Kuznica Bialystocka - Grodno, Siemianówka - Svisloch, Terespol - Brest, writes the Polish edition "Rzeczpospolita".

After the Russian drone raid on Poland, the government announced that the ban was in effect until further notice. "We will resume traffic when we are sure that the safety of Poles is guaranteed and we are not threatened by any provocations," explained Minister of Interior and Administration Martin Kerwiński.

The closure of border crossings, including railroad crossings, should encourage Russia and Belarus to de-escalate. But there are also side effects - transit rail traffic from China, which maintains friendly relations with Moscow and Minsk, has stopped.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Thursday, September 11, that "China-Europe Railway Express is a flagship project of China-Poland and China-Europe cooperation" that is "in line with the common interests of both sides." He expressed hope that Poland would "take concrete and effective actions to ensure the safe and smooth operation of trains and the stability of international industrial supply chains."

The closure of border crossings could prompt Beijing to put pressure on Moscow and Minsk, as 90% of rail traffic between China and the EU passes through Poland. Upply, which analyzes the transportation market, highlights that rail traffic between China and the EU grew 10.6% to 745,900 TEUs (standard twenty-foot containers) in 2024.

The value of cargo transported on this Eurasian rail route reached $29.4 billion, an 84.9% increase from 2023. Rail transportation already accounted for 3.7% of all annual EU-China trade, up from 2.1% a year earlier.

This growth has been fueled by the encroachment of Chinese e-commerce platforms into the European market. Now that Poland has closed border crossings - a measure prompted by aggressive actions by Russia and Belarus - Temu, Shein and others may find it difficult to deliver ordered goods on time. "If this flow was blocked, some parcels would have to be sent by sea, and some (perhaps 30%) by air. This will affect the cost and operational quality of deliveries, especially if airplanes are overloaded," points out Last Mile Experts President Marek Ruzicki.

"When decisions are influenced by security concerns, economic consequences are of secondary importance to decision makers," says Professor Wojciech Paprocki of SGH. - But they are painful for trading partners and logistics operators. Delayed deliveries of components from China could lead to production stoppages in Europe, with losses running into hundreds of millions of euros," he estimates.

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