Lukashenko Was Dealt An Unexpectedly Strong And Painful Blow
7- 19.09.2025, 8:54
- 30,834
The dictator became sad.
Let's summarize the interim results and adjust forecasts because there have been a number of important positions over the past two months.
The focus was on Trump's meeting first with Bunker, then with European leaders and Zelensky. A number of other statements by politicians following the meetings and talks. President Zelensky's meeting with the Servant of the People faction and the two scenarios he described. The outcome could have been any, especially on the meeting in Alaska, we were not in vain nervous. But all these big events only strengthened my summer forecast
Time is working against Russia. They themselves already realize this. The Ukrainian front and the Russian economy - whichever proves stronger. They are eating up their National Welfare Fund very dashingly. I will not burden you with figures and percentages. I have watched them all, listened to the statements of Russian official economists - bad everywhere. According to them, the fund will end in 2026, but I think they will manage to do it in 2025
An unexpectedly strong and painful blow was dealt by Poland, blocking the borders with Belarus. It was not only the Kremlin that started to burn. Lukashenko got sad and began to lose money to China every day. China's minister even urgently flew to Poland, but he could not solve the issue, so it seems to me that it was not only the drones that flew into Poland and it was not only Warsaw that made the decision. That is, Russia's allies have learned what it is to live badly and a real blockade. They will be more accommodating.
The main prediction remains. The Kremlin is screaming about their readiness to go to war all the way to 2026. And they can, it's true. But their economy will crumble sooner and too hard. So it's in their interest to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine before the end of 2025. But their bunker chief with his flock of propagandists wants to come out nicely. To present it as a victory. That is, at a minimum - to occupy the entire Donetsk region by the end of the year. They say that there is even such an order. But this is unrealistic, except that everything will collapse, and this is not
It seems to me that Putin was very much counting on something to change the Donetsk region. And that with this scenario or better on twisting Ukraine's arms Trump would help him. But it seems very likely that at the moment Donald Trump is formulating his attitude simply - "Dear friend, you've screwed everyone..."
Kirill Sazonov, "Telegram"
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