Russia's Imperial Ambitions Have Turned Against It

The Kremlin has lost in the South Caucasus.

In Washington, D.C., on August 8, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a preliminary peace agreement and a joint declaration to create the TRIPP corridor (Trump's Route for International Peace and Prosperity), which connects the exclave of Nakhichevan to the core territory of Azerbaijan via Armenia. The breakthrough was a major victory for both countries and the United States, with Russia the main loser, writes Atlantic Council (translated by Charter97.org).

The diplomatic achievement was made possible by Moscow's mistakes and its disregard for its neighbors' sovereignty. Russia has traditionally viewed the borders of former Soviet republics as "blurred" zones of influence, which has manifested itself in manipulation over decades, from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to control of energy and arms supplies.

Armenia, relying on collective security through the CSTO, received no assistance in 2022-2023 when Azerbaijani forces advanced into Karabakh. At the same time, Azerbaijan, having withdrawn from the Russian security system in 1999, maintained close ties with Moscow through arms and energy. In recent years, the Armenian market has come under economic pressure: export bans, restrictions on agricultural products and a blow to the flower industry.

Russia has also resorted to intimidation of Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries. Now the U.S. can capitalize on the success of the TRIPP agreement to expand its partnership with the Caucasus and Central Asian regions. Creating new transportation and railroad links through Armenia to Azerbaijan, Turkey, and further into Central Asia would bypass Russia, strengthening economic ties and access to strategic minerals, while supporting Ukraine and strengthening sanctions against Moscow.

This approach demonstrates that peace in the region can be fostered without military action, using economics, infrastructure, and diplomatic alliances.

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